CFTC Probes $500 Million Oil Bet Placed Minutes Before Trump's Truth Social Post
FF
Finley Fitzgerald
SEC enforcement action · Apr 16, 2026
Source: DojiDoji Data Terminal
Traders who bet on a decline in oil prices on March 23 were rewarded when oil prices dropped sharply following a Truth Social post by President Donald Trump regarding de-escalation talks with Iran. Between 6:49 and 6:50 a.m. ET that morning, traders placed roughly $500 to $580 million in Brent and WTI crude oil futures contracts. Trading volume at that hour was nine times the average for that time of day. Fifteen minutes later, Trump posted on the announcement of productive talks with Iran.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is now investigating these trades. The probe follows pressure from Democratic lawmakers, including Senators Elizabeth Warren and and Sheldon Whitehouse, who flagged unusual activity in crude oil markets tied to the president’s announcements. A similar pattern occurred on April 7, when approximately $950 million in bets on falling oil prices appeared hours before Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, causing oil prices to fall about 15%.
The CFTC is using its surveillance tools and subpoena power to identify the traders who may have used material nonpublic government information. No charges have been surfaced yet.