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Home/Real Estate/HOME PRICE INDEX · 30-YEAR MORTGAGE RATE

Mortgage Rate Spikes Sidelined Canadian Buyers and Lowered 2026 Home Price Forecasts

JS

Juniper Sterling

home price index · Apr 16, 2026

Mortgage Rate Spikes Sidelined Canadian Buyers and Lowered 2026 Home Price Forecasts

Source: DojiDoji Data Terminal

Prospective homebuyers in April, May, and June may remain on the sidelines as a mid-month jump in fixed mortgage rates increases borrowing costs. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) warns that this rate spike could "pull the rug out from under the spring market," as buyers wait for rates to decline.

Related BriefJust now
real estate

Canadian Home Sales Forecasts Fall as Rate Hike Risks Emerge for 2026

Canadian home sales growth will be lower than previously projected. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) lowered its growth forecast following a tepid economic start to the year. This economic environment has increased the probability of a rate hike in 2026.

The rate increase was triggered by an oil price shock resulting from the Iran war. According to CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart, the perception that these increases may be temporary keeps buyers away during the most active months of the year.

Related Brief1d ago
housing market

Home prices hit $408,800 as affordability collapses despite growing inventory

The median price of an existing home reached $408,800 in March, a record high. This is the 33rd straight month of year-over-year price growth, even as sales of existing homes fell 3.6% from February—defying expectations for a seasonal rebound. Inventory remains tight, with the supply-to-demand ratio below historical norms. The National Association of Realtors estimates the market would need 300,000 to 500,000 more homes for sale to approach balance. The U.S. housing shortage stands at 4.7 million units, according to a 2025 Zillow report, a structural deficit that continues to prop up prices. Mortgage rates remain high at 6.37%, supported by elevated Treasury yields as oil prices hold at $94 per barrel amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in Iran. Consumer sentiment has dropped to 47.6, the lowest in 74 years, dampening buyer appetite. Nearly three in five Americans now believe AI-driven job automation will make homeownership harder. The median age of first-time homebuyers has risen to 40, signaling deep affordability challenges. As a result, many rely on family financial support—the so-called 'Bank of Mom and Dad'—while some employers offer $6,500 toward home purchases. Over the past six years, the typical homeowner has accumulated $128,100 in housing wealth.

Market activity in March 2026 showed early signs of a slowdown. Home sales recorded over the multiple listing service (MLS) dipped 0.1% month-over-month, while non-seasonally adjusted transactions fell 2.3% from a year ago. The national average home price reached $673,084, a 0.8% decline year-over-year.

Related Brief11h ago
mortgage refinancing

Refinancing volume increases as mortgage rates retreat to 6.42%

Conventional refinance applications increased as the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances decreased to 6.42% from 6.51% the prior week. This retreat in rates was driven by a ceasefire in the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, which lowered oil prices. The Refinance Index increased 5% from the previous week. The refinance share of mortgage activity activity increased to 45.5% of total applications from 44.3% the previous week.

Price declines were more acute in expensive markets. In the Greater Toronto Area, the seasonally adjusted benchmark home price fell 7.2% year-over-year to $928,000. The Greater Vancouver Area saw a 6.8% decline to $1,096,300. Conversely, Quebec City and Montreal saw benchmark price increases of 10.1% and 4.9%, respectively, compared with March 2025.

Related Brief3d ago
mortgage rates

Weekly Mortgage Rate Drop Lowers Homebuyer Monthly Payments

Monthly payment burdens for homebuyers have eased following a seven basis point decrease in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate over the past week. The rate now stands at 6.15%.

As a result of these shifting conditions, CREA downgraded its 2026 forecast for residential property trades from 494,512 to 474,972. The national average home price forecast for 2026 was revised downward to $688,955.

Related Brief11h ago
mortgage rates

Mortgage Refinance Demand Surges as 30-Year Fixed Rates Hit Monthly Low

Refinance applications jumped 5.1% in the week ended April 10, 2026. This represents the strongest weekly gain in over a month. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate for conforming loan of $806,500 or less fell to 6.s42% from 6.51%. This is the lowest level in roughly a month. The shift was driven by market volatility tied to the Iran war, affecting energy and commodity prices and bond yields. Refinance applications are 15% higher than the same week one year ago. Overall mortgage applications increase 1.8%, the first increase in five weeks.

home price index30-year mortgage ratecommercial real estate distress

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