The $2 Million Retirement Target Is a Baseline for Variable Expenses
AE
Avery Everett
long-term care insurance · Apr 16, 2026
Source: DojiDoji Data Terminal
A retiree withdrawing 4% of a $2 million portfolio in the first year generates $80,000 in annual pre-tax income. When combined with Social Security payments of $20,000 to $40,000, the total annual retirement income reaches $100,000 to $120,000.
This income level is based on the 4% rule, a withdrawal strategy designed to prevent a portfolio from being depleted over 30 years. However, the viability of this income depends on the timing of retirement and the cost of living. Retiring at 62 instead of 67 increases the funding period by five years. Those retiring before 65 must also pay for health insurance out of pocket until Medicare eligibility begins.
Inflation further erodes the purchasing power of this income. Prices for food and housing are currently higher than the general 3% inflation rate, and prices are 25% higher than they were four years ago.
Market volatility creates additional risk. Fixed annual withdrawals are riskier when investment returns fluctuate widely. These fluctuations, combined with rising costs, increase the probability of outliving savings. According to a Northwestern Mutual study, 51% of Americans believe they will likely outlive their savings.
long-term care insurance
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