Trump Administration Policies Reduce US GDP by $300 Billion Annually
AS
Amara Sinclair
30-year mortgage rate · Apr 16, 2026
Source: DojiDoji Data Terminal
Mortgage payments and debt service costs are higher because the 30-year mortgage rate and 10-year Treasury rate are approximately 60 basis points higher than they would be without the Trump administration's economic agenda. This rate increase is driven by higher inflation, which was pushed up by tariffs last year and energy price impacts from the war in Iran in 2026.
Deportations have reduced aggregate hours worked, acting as a drag on GDP growth. Real GDP would be nearly 1 percent higher relative to the baseline if these policies had not been implemented. The US economy has lost $300 billion in output per year.
30-year mortgage rate
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