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Home/Real Estate/30-YEAR MORTGAGE RATE

Trump Administration Policies Reduce US GDP by $300 Billion Annually

AS

Amara Sinclair

30-year mortgage rate · Apr 16, 2026

Trump Administration Policies Reduce US GDP by $300 Billion Annually

Source: DojiDoji Data Terminal

Mortgage payments and debt service costs are higher because the 30-year mortgage rate and 10-year Treasury rate are approximately 60 basis points higher than they would be without the Trump administration's economic agenda. This rate increase is driven by higher inflation, which was pushed up by tariffs last year and energy price impacts from the war in Iran in 2026.

Related Brief8h ago
mortgage rates

30-Year Mortgage Rates Projected to Reach 6.2% by 2026

The average rate on 30-year loans is projected to reach 6.2% by the end of 2026. This forecast from the Mortgage Bankers Association comes as rising inflation expectations move the 10-year Treasury yield, which drives mortgage rates. Geopolitical tensions have increased oil prices, pushing inflation higher than previously expected. The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts inflation will reach 4% by the end of 2026, up from an original forecast of 3.2%. Because of these inflation risks, the Mortgage Bankers Association has removed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. The federal funds rate is expected to remain in the range of 3.5% to 3.75% with little movement anticipated into 2027.

Deportations have reduced aggregate hours worked, acting as a drag on GDP growth. Real GDP would be nearly 1 percent higher relative to the baseline if these policies had not been implemented. The US economy has lost $300 billion in output per year.

Related Brief2d ago
mortgage rates

A bond-market rally tied to trade-war expectations cuts mortgage rates, changing the math for buyers and refinancers

Lower mortgage rates are changing the refinancing calculus for homeowners carrying loans above 7%, as the average 30-year fixed rate fell to 6.30% on April 13, 2026. The average 15-year fixed rate declined to 5.92%, while 30-year refinance loans averaged 6.62% and 15-year refinances hit 5.91%. For households weighing monthly savings against closing costs, even this modest drop can shift the breakeven point enough to make refinancing worth reconsidering. The decline follows a bond-market rally sparked by shifting expectations around trade-war policies, which lowered yields and reduced lenders’ funding costs. Because mortgage rates track 10-year Treasury yields and mortgage-backed securities, that bond move translated directly into lower borrowing costs. While rates remain far above pandemic-era lows, the recent easing offers a narrow window of relief for buyers on the sidelines and refinancers sitting on high-rate loans. But the improvement hinges on trade negotiations staying stable. If expectations reverse, the bond rally could stall—and mortgage rates with it. Borrowers who act now may lock in savings before the window closes. The terminal consequence is that refinancers with rates above 7% may now find the spread wide enough to justify a new loan, depending on their loan balance, term, and closing costs.

30-year mortgage rate

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