T he recent price bounce from $65,000 to $75,000 is likely a temporary recovery rather than the start of a bull market. This conclusion is based on a moving average crossover indicator that has coincided with every major market bottom since 2015. The indicator tracks the 50-week and 100-week average prices of bitcoin.
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cryptocurrency Goldman Sachs Launches Bitcoin ETF as Prediction Markets Signal Near Certainty of $62,000 Support
Bitcoin is nearly certain to remain above $62,000 in the next two days, according to prediction markets showing 99.9% confidence for both April 17 and April 18. This near-certainty is reflected in $458,885 in face value and $356,534 in actual USDC traded across those sub-markets. Goldman Sachs has capitalized on this stability by launching a Bitcoin Premium Income ETF, a move that signals broader institutional acceptance rather than immediate price disruption. The ETF’s introduction pressures other major banks to follow suit, potentially shifting sentiment in longer-dated prediction markets.
Most of the time, the 50-week average is above the 100-week line. When selling is relentless and sentiment collapses, the 50-week average falls below the 100-week average. This crossover has occurred three times: April 2015, February Crossover happened in February 2019 and September 2022. Each time, it marked a major price bottom that has not been revisited.
Related Brief 2d ago
digital assets Treasury General Account Replenishmenty will Cap Bitcoin's Rally
High-elasticity assets like Bitcoin will face suppression as the U.S. Treasury replenishes the Treasury General Account to over $1 trillion. This liquidity withdrawal from financial markets will cap further gains for the price of Bitcoin. The rally, which saw Bitcoin surge from $68,100 on April 1 to $75,600 on April 16, a gain of over 10%, was driven by a temporary de-escalation of the Iran conflict and a rebound in net market liquidity. On April 16, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $411 million in inflows, the second-largest daily inflow in April. On April 1 account for for the same period, on April 13, $9.53 million flowed into the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF Trust (BITB) and $3,638,850 was deposited into the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB). On April 13, BTC-USD traded at $74,523.52 following a 22.34% drop in price over the preceding three months. The Coinbase premium indicator turned positive on April 8, and 25 delta skew improved, indicating reduced options-based selling pressure. Despite these indicators of rising U.S. investor demand, analysts caution that the rally occurs amid a structurally weak market. The odds of a move to $84,000 fell from 64% to 59% in the same day. The U.S. tax season through mid-to-late April may trigger portfolio rebalancing and profit-taking. If the $73,000–$75,000 range holds and downside risks remain contained, the next resistance level for Bitcoin is $79,000.
As of April 17, the 50-week average still holds above the 100-week average. The broader bear market may still be intact and could worsen before finding a bottom.
Related Brief 1d ago
bitcoin price analysis Bitcoin stabilizes near $74,000 as profit-taking and weak institutional demand cap upside
Bitcoin is trading at $74,000, just 5.2% below the True Market Mean of $78,100 — a critical resistance level that represents the average cost basis of active on-chain supply. The proximity to this threshold has not sparked broad-based buying, as investors continue to sell into the recovery. The 30-day Exponential Moving Average of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has climbed to 1.16, signaling sustained profit-taking during the rebound. Despite the selling, only 43.2% of Short-Term Holder (STH) supply is currently in profit, below the 54.2% historical average seen at local peaks in past bear-market rallies, suggesting room for further gains before selling pressure intensifies. Spot market demand remains uneven. Binance is recording relatively strong activity from retail and international participants, while Coinbase continues to see subdued flows — a divergence that underscores fragmented conviction. Institutional participation is returning gradually. US Bitcoin ETFs have posted recent inflows, shifting flows back into positive territory, and open interest on CME Group futures has started to recover. Yet both metrics remain well below levels observed during periods of strong risk appetite, indicating caution rather than conviction. Liquidity conditions are adding complexity. Derivatives data shows one-month implied volatility at 42.6%, reflecting calmer conditions after recent swings, but the one-week volatility risk premium has turned negative — a sign options markets underestimated the rally’s strength. Dealer gamma exposure is notably negative at $3 billion, concentrated between $74,000 and $76,000, a range where hedging activity could either cap or amplify near-term price movements. A sustained breakout above $78,100 will require stronger spot demand, more decisive institutional inflows, and clear absorption of supply at that level.
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