Tariff Refunds Flow to Businesses, but Consumers Likely See No Price Relief

Over 56,000 importers have already recovered $127 billion in tariff refunds, but economists say consumers are unlikely to see price relief. The U.S. Supreme Court invalidated tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, prompting a court order to return $166 billion in collected duties. To manage the refunds, U.S. Customs and Border Protection is rolling out the CAPE system, which will streamline the reimbursement process for eligible importers. While the Federal Reserve found that 90% of tariff costs in 2025 were passed on to consumers through higher prices, most companies plan to keep the recovered funds rather than lower prices. Meanwhile, policymakers are exploring new legal routes to reintroduce tariffs, which could prolong trade uncertainty and sustain elevated costs for households.