Bitcoin Flirts With $76K as Traders Bet Against the Rally

Bitcoin is trading at $75,580, up 1.2% in the past 24 hours and nearing an intraday high of $76,114—yet traders aren’t celebrating. For over a month, funding rates in Bitcoin derivatives markets have remained negative, hitting their most bearish level this year, signaling that many investors are betting the rally will fail. Negative funding rates mean short positions dominate, with traders paying to hold bets that the price will drop. The market is heavily short.

That positioning stands in contrast to recent bullish catalysts: steady inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, progress on the CLARITY Act, and a temporary de-escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions. Still, derivatives data suggest skepticism. Options markets show a 7- to 30-day 25-delta skew between -2% and -4%, meaning traders are paying more for puts—downside protection. The put/call ratio has climbed to 0.72, reinforcing caution.

The pattern echoes late May 2022, when a similar setup preceded a sharp downturn. "There’s a real risk this turns into a bull trap rather than a breakout," warned Illia Otychenko, lead analyst at CEX.IO. A confirmed break above $80,000 could change the calculus. That level is seen as the trigger for cascading liquidations of short positions, fueling a short squeeze. Daniel Reis-Faria, CEO of ZeroStack, believes such a move could push Bitcoin to $125,000 within 30 to 60 days. Until then, the market remains split. On prediction market Myriad, users now assign a 67% chance that Bitcoin’s next major move will be to $84,000, not $55,000. The price is testing $76,114.