Upstart Model 22 Calibration Error Reduced FY 2025 Fee Revenue by $44 Million
DF
Dana Fletcher
insider trading SEC charge · Apr 16, 2026
Source: DojiDoji Data Terminal
Upstart shares fell 9.71% after the company disclosed that its Model 22 AI underwriting system overreacted to macroeconomic signals. The decline represents a loss of $4.49 per share.
This result followed a 330-basis-point collapse in the conversion rate, which fell from 23.9% in Q2 2025 to 20.6% in Q3 2025. The drop in conversion reduced funded loan volume, causing Q3 2025 revenue of $277 million to miss company guidance of $280 million by $3 million. The company subsequently reduced its FY 2025 fee revenue outlook by $44 million, from $990 million to $946 million.
The failure originated with Model 22, launched in early May 2025. The model was overly responsive to macroeconomic signals and tightened credit approvals beyond what borrower repayment data justified. Management later admitted the model's conservatism was the dominant driver of reduced conversion despite robust application volume throughout Q3 2025.
insider trading SEC chargepayment for order flow SECUpstartSEC ESG enforcementSEC enforcement actionSEC crypto enforcementSEC retail investor ruleRipple XRP SEC
The Ledger Morning
The essential intelligence to start your trading day. Delivered 6:00 AM EST.
Join 50,000+ professionals who start their day with The Digital Ledger.