Two of Robinhood’s Most-Owned Stocks Have 50%+ Upside—But the Real Story Is Why They’re Down

Two of Robinhood’s most-owned stocks are down sharply despite Wall Street seeing more than 50% upside in each — a gap that reveals not a flaw in the companies, but in investor expectations around AI’s near-term payoff.

The average price target for Nvidia is $274 per share, suggesting 54% upside from current levels as of April 7. For Microsoft, it’s $582, implying 57% upside. Both figures come from analyst consensus tracked by TipRanks over the past three months, with 41 of 43 analysts rating Nvidia a buy and 34 of 37 doing the same for Microsoft.

Nvidia reported blowout earnings and raised its guidance, while CEO Jensen Huang projected $1 trillion in chip sales from the Blackwell platform and the upcoming Vera Rubin between March 2024 and the end of 2027. The company is also preparing to relaunch chip sales to China, a former major revenue source. Yet the stock trades at 21 times forward earnings, a multiple analysts consider attractive given its history of exceeding forecasts.

Microsoft’s Azure cloud division grew 39% year over year in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, fueled by demand for AI infrastructure. But its Copilot AI assistant has penetrated only about 3% of its 450 million paid commercial Microsoft 365 subscribers — a figure investors expected to be much higher. That lag, combined with broader software sector concerns about AI-driven competition eroding SaaS moats, has weighed on sentiment.

Still, the stock’s 30% decline over six months hasn’t erased Microsoft’s dominance in enterprise software or its deep integration of AI across products. Analysts argue the pullback creates a buying opportunity in a company positioned to benefit from AI’s long-term trajectory even if near-term adoption lags.

Analysts see Microsoft’s current valuation as a buying opportunity given its diversified AI exposure and entrenched enterprise position.