Tax refunds are briefly rewiring spending habits — and restaurants are cashing in

Restaurant traffic in the US has surged 53% in the two weeks following early tax refund deposits, with full-service establishments seeing the most pronounced rebound. Many consumers who had curtailed discretionary spending due to inflation are now using their refunds to dine out — a shift from initial intentions to save the windfall. Chime data confirms the influx of spending, as households redirect money toward experiences rather than stashing it away. The IRS began distributing early tax refunds to millions, and the immediate effect on consumer behavior has been stark. Full-service restaurants, which rely more heavily on discretionary spending, are benefiting most. Yet the boost is expected to be short-lived. Analysts note refund-driven spending typically fades within weeks as the cash is exhausted. Some consumers are using the funds to pay down debt or cover essentials like groceries, leaving less room for dining out. At the same time, rising gas prices are eroding spending power, counteracting the temporary gain in disposable income. While the trend may not alter long-term sales trajectories, it underscores how quickly consumer behavior responds to liquidity — and how fragile that shift can be.