Social Security's insolvency date moves up as tax and immigration policies drain revenue

A typical couple who turned 60 in 2025 could lose $18,400 per year in Social Security benefits if lawmakers fail to act, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

The Congressional Budget Office now projects the Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund will be depleted by 2032 — one year earlier than the 2033 insolvency date projected by the Social Security Trustees prior to the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). The OBBBA, signed into law in July 2025, included a $6,000 senior tax deduction that reduces federal revenue from the taxation of Social Security benefits.

The Social Security Office of the Chief Actuary estimated the OBBBA will reduce Social Security revenue by $168.6 billion between 2025 and 2034. That loss accelerates the trust fund’s depletion.

The law’s immigration restrictions compound the strain. By reducing the size of the workforce through mass deportations, fewer wage earners will contribute payroll taxes — the program’s primary funding source. A shrinking labor force, already pressured by declining birth rates, means less revenue flowing into Social Security.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget warns that without congressional action, benefits could be cut by roughly 24% for future retirees. That could mean $18,400 less annually for a typical couple.