J erome Powell will serve as chair pro tem if his successor is not confirmed by May 15. The current chair's term expires on the 15th. The process is permitted by law.
Related Brief 6h ago
monetary policy Federal Reserve Chair Nominee Kevin Warsh Discloses Assets Exceeding $100 Million
A confirmed Federal Reserve Chair nominee must divest certain holdings or place assets into blind trusts to avoid policy bias. Kevin Warsh, nominated for the role in 2026, has filed a financial disclosure showing assets exceeding $100 million. These holdings include two stakes of $50 million or more in the Juggernaut Fund LP, related to his advisory work for the Duquesne Family Office. The disclosure also lists investments in SpaceX and Polymarket, among dozens of other emerging venture assets.
Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott announced Tuesday that Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve chair, will have a confirmation hearing next week. The hearing follows Warsh's public disclosure of personal finances.
Related Brief 10h ago
monetary policy Warsh’s Confirmation Hearing Opens a Path to Lower Rates — and Tests the Fed’s Independence
Confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair would place a vocal critic of the central bank’s recent monetary policy in charge of setting interest rates by May, when Jerome Powell’s term expires. Warsh has blamed the Fed’s low interest rate policies after the pandemic for fueling the highest inflation spike in four decades, and now supports President Donald Trump’s push for lower borrowing costs. He argues that artificial intelligence will drive productivity gains strong enough to justify rate cuts without reigniting inflation — a view many Fed officials dispute. The Senate Banking Committee has scheduled Warsh’s confirmation hearing for April 21, setting the stage for a high-stakes debate over the future of monetary policy. Warsh needs a majority vote in the Senate to be confirmed, but Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) plans to block the nomination until a criminal investigation into Powell is resolved. That probe stems from the Justice Department’s subpoena of the Fed over Powell’s testimony on the central bank’s $2.5 billion building renovation project. Warsh, who previously served as a Fed governor and in the George W. Bush administration, has pledged to divest assets if confirmed, adhering to the central bank’s ethics rules. His confirmation would mark a sharp pivot in the Fed’s leadership and policy direction — one tied directly to the political calculus of a president who once claimed he was given bad advice for picking Powell.
Confirmation may be delayed by a Senator Thom Tillis, R-S.C., who has made the conclusion of a criminal investigation into Jerome Powell a condition of his support for Warsh. U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro Pirro is investigating Powell's oversight of the renovation of two Federal Reserve buildings. A deputy of Pirro acknowledged in a March 3 hearing transcript that they do not have evidence Powell committed any wrongdoing.
Related Brief 18h ago
monetary policy Justice Department probe into Jerome Powell threatens to delay new Federal Reserve chair
Jerome Powell will remain at the Federal Reserve until a new chair is confirmed. His term as chair expires on May 15. The timeline for a new appointment depends on the vote of Sen. Thom Tillis, who has stated he will refuse to vote for any Fed chair nominee until the Justice Department concludes its investigation into Powell. US Attorney Jeanine Pirro, who is leading the probe into Powell's congressional testimony regarding a multibillion-dollar renovation of the Fed's headquarters, has said she will push to continue the investigation regardless of the impact on a nominee's confirmation. President Donald Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh for the position, with a Senate Banking Committee hearing scheduled for next week.
Senator Tillis has stated that seven Republican members of the Senate Banking Committee, including the chairman, have stated no crime was committed.
Related Brief 2h ago
monetary policy One rate cut is all that's left on the table as inflation shocks and political pressure collide at the Fed
One rate cut is all that remains within reach for the Federal Reserve this year, and even that is uncertain. Inflation pressures from a global supply shock — triggered by the six-week Iran conflict — have already pushed U.S. consumer prices to their fastest rise in nearly four years, driven by a record surge in gasoline and diesel. Crude oil prices have jumped more than 30%, feeding directly into household budgets and hardening inflation expectations. Short-term inflation expectations have ticked up, and the Fed, meeting in March, held its benchmark rate steady in the 3.50% to 3.75% range. Still, a majority of policymakers signaled at least one cut could be appropriate in 2024. Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, speaking at the HSBC Global Investment Summit in Hong Kong, said that if she were attending the next FOMC meeting, she would write down one cut — later in the year — as her best guess. Yet markets have moved even further away from that view: traders have now priced out any chance of a 2024 cut, reversing earlier bets on two. The shift reflects not just inflation but growing concern over political interference. Former President Donald Trump has launched an aggressive campaign to pressure the Fed, criticizing Chair Jerome Powell and pushing to replace him with Kevin Warsh, whom Trump believes would deliver steep rate cuts. Trump has also targeted the Fed’s headquarters renovation, sending prosecutors from Jeanine Pirro’s office to inspect the project over cost concerns. Yellen, who chaired the Fed from 2014 to 2018, called the level of political pressure unprecedented, describing it as a threat to the central bank’s independence. With inflation limiting monetary flexibility and political forces testing institutional boundaries, the path to easier policy has narrowed to a single, fragile possibility.
If the following vote is not completed by the mid-May deadline, Powell remains in the process as chair pro tem.
Related Brief 3d ago
monetary policy Oil Spikes and Iranian War Uncertainty Lock Interest Rates
The Dow fell 1.6%, the S&P 500 fell 1.4%, and the Nasdaq lost 1.5% to their lowest levels since November. The VIX Composite spiked nearly 10%. These declines followed the Federal Reserve's March 18 policy meeting where interest rates remained unchanged. Fed Chair Jerome Powell cited inflation concerns and uncertainty caused by the war in Iran as reasons for the stand pat. Brent crude oil closed at $105 a barrel, up nearly 6%, while the nationwide average average for a gallon of gas reached $3.86. Investors sold bonds, pushing the 10-year U.S. note yield up nearly 6 basis points to 4.26%.
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