emergencyBreaking NewsA $1.5 trillion defense increase is proposed alongside $15.8 billion in healthcare cuts — and a deeper argument about what government spending reveals about prioritiesFed rate uncertainty and diplomacy optimism weaken US Dollar to lift GoldRising fuel costs offset the financial gains of tip tax cutsThe One Big Beautiful Bill Act Accelerates Social Security Insolvency to 2032Latrobe-Gippsland Home Prices Lag Regional Victoria's PeakA $1.5 trillion defense increase is proposed alongside $15.8 billion in healthcare cuts — and a deeper argument about what government spending reveals about prioritiesFed rate uncertainty and diplomacy optimism weaken US Dollar to lift GoldRising fuel costs offset the financial gains of tip tax cutsThe One Big Beautiful Bill Act Accelerates Social Security Insolvency to 2032Latrobe-Gippsland Home Prices Lag Regional Victoria's Peak
DoiDoi
Credit & Lendingexpand_more
Credit CardsPersonal LoansStudent Loans
Markets & Investingexpand_more
Stocks & ETFsCrypto & BlockchainFed & Macro
Retirement & Benefitsexpand_more
401(k) & IRASocial SecurityRetirement Policy
Real Estateexpand_more
Mortgage RatesHousing Market
Financial Foundationexpand_more
Budgeting & SavingInsurance
Latest News
MarketsPortfolio
The Digital Ledger
Credit & Lending
Markets & Investing
Retirement & Benefits
Real Estate
Financial Foundation
Latest News
Dashboards

Institutional Financial Analysis

Home/Markets & Investing/DOL FIDUCIARY RULE ERISA · FED INTEREST RATE DECISION

Oil price surge from U.S.-Iran blockade limits Federal Reserve rate cut probability to 29%

RA

River Aldridge

DOL fiduciary rule ERISA · Apr 14, 2026

Oil price surge from U.S.-Iran blockade limits Federal Reserve rate cut probability to 29%

Source: DojiDoji Data Terminal

U.S. gasoline and diesel prices have reached their highest levels since the summer of 2022. The price increase follows a U.S. military blockade of vessels departing Iranian ports, which disrupted the global oil supply. Brent crude jumped over $8 in early trading on Monday, while U.S. crude breached the $100 mark. Spot crude prices in the European market reached a historic high of approximately $150 per barrel.

Related Brief18h ago
commodities

Higher inflation is crushing gold because the Fed isn’t cutting rates — it might hike again

Spot gold is trading near $1,950 per ounce, down 3.8% and breaking key support at $1,980, as rising real yields and a surging dollar overwhelm its traditional role as an inflation hedge. Recent CPI and PPI reports exceeded forecasts, reinforcing the view that inflation is not cooling as hoped. That data has shifted market expectations: the Federal Reserve is no longer expected to cut rates soon. Instead, traders now price in the possibility of another hike. The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.5%. As nominal yields rise faster than inflation expectations, real yields — the return on inflation-protected debt — are increasing. That makes Treasury securities more attractive than gold, which pays no yield. At the same time, hawkish Fed sentiment is fueling demand for the US dollar. The DXY index gained 1.2%, reaching a two-month high. Since gold is priced in dollars, a stronger greenback makes it costlier for foreign buyers, dampening demand. While central bank purchases and geopolitical risks offer some floor, they’re not enough to offset the pressure from higher real yields and dollar strength. Gold’s fate now hinges on whether inflation shows clear signs of sustainably receding — or if the Fed’s next move is up, not down.

This energy cost surge has pushed the U.S. one-year inflation swap rate to 3.168%. Rising inflation expectations now limit the Federal Reserve's capacity to lower interest rates. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market now predicts a 29% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by the end of the year, down from 40% a month ago.

Related Brief3h ago
monetary policy

Oil Price Spike Erodes Probability of December Federal Reserve Rate Cut

Average Canadian households will spend an additional $500 per year at the pump. This shift in spending leaves consumers with less money for other goods and other services. The price surge follows a U.S. Navy blockade of ships entering or departing Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, ordered by President Trump after 21 hours of negotiations in Pakistan failed to reach an agreement. WTI crude oil reached $105.339 per barrel and Brent crude oil reached $103. Oil prices influence the CPI primarily through energy and transportation sectors, which account for less than 13% of the CPI. While these spikes increase the risk of energy-fueled inflation spikes globally, they have reduced the probability of a U.S. rate drawdown of at least 25 basis points at the Federal Reserve's Kingdom gathering in December to 16%, down from 21% a day prior.

DOL fiduciary rule ERISAFed interest rate decision

The Ledger Morning

The essential intelligence to start your trading day. Delivered 6:00 AM EST.

Join 50,000+ professionals who start their day with The Digital Ledger.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

Read More Analysis

Bitcoin ETF

Ethereum's Execution Risk creates a 10-to-1 Institutional Flow Gap

Ethereum holders may see a 2-3% net annual yield on top of price appreciation if the SEC approves staking for spot Ether…

Fed interest rate decision

RBNZ Inflation Warnings Drive New Zealand Dollar Toward 3% Rate Target

The New Zealand dollar is strengthening as market expectations for rate hikes increase. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand …

DoiDoi

© 2026 DojiDoji. All rights reserved.

EditorialEditorial GuidelinesCorrections
LegalPrivacy PolicyTerms of Service
DisclosureSEC DisclosuresAd Choice
SocialX (Twitter)LinkedIn