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Institutional Financial Analysis

Home/Real Estate/PENDING HOME SALES INDEX · HOUSING INVENTORY SHORTAGE

Low inventory and high prices keep homebuyersy out of the spring season

CV

Charlie Vaughan

pending home sales index · Apr 14, 2026

Low inventory and high prices keep homebuyersy out of the spring season

Source: DojiDoji Data Terminal

Existing-home sales decreased 3.6% month-over-month and 1% year-over-year in March, according to the National Association of Realtors. The housing market remains in a prolonged sales slump. The median existing-home sales price hit a March record of $408,800, marking the 33rd consecutive month of year-over-year price increases. In the Northeast, the median price for a resale home was $494,500, up 5.7% from March 2025. In the Midwest, the Midwest median price was $315,500, up 4.9%. In the South, the median price was $362,600, up 0.8%. In the West, the median price was $613,400, down 1.3%.

Related Brief9h ago
real estate

Tight supply keeps home prices at record highs despite falling demand

Buyers may gain more negotiating power as demand for existing homes falls. U.S. home sales fell 3.6% in March, the lowest for that month since 2009. The National Association of Realtors reported that lower consumer confidence and softer job growth are holding buyers back. Despite the slowing sales, the supply of homes remains tight. The median U.S. existing-home price is now $408,800, a 1.4% increase from one year ago and a record high for the month of March. Buyers gain more negotiating power.

Inventory is currently at a four-month supply, which is below the balanced market threshold of five to six months of supply. Potential sellers with lower mortgage rates are staying on the sidelines, which creates a lock-in effect that caps inventory.

Related Brief9h ago
housing market

Higher mortgage rates push first-time buyers to record age of 40

The median age of first-time home buyers has reached 40, a record high, as rising mortgage rates and tight supply push ownership further out of reach. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage climbed to 6.18% in March, up from 6.05% the month before, adding hundreds of dollars in monthly payments for would-be buyers. That increase helped drive existing home sales down 3.6% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales are now 1% below last year’s pace. The group has slashed its 2026 forecast for existing home sales to a 4% increase, down sharply from the 14% gain it projected late last year. Tight inventory and rising borrowing costs are delaying homeownership for a generation of buyers.

Lackluster sales in the first quarter, rising mortgage rates, a middling jobs market, and low consumer confidence led the National Association of Realtors to revise its 2026 existing-homes sales forecast from a 14% increase down to a 4% increase.

Related Brief2d ago
mortgage rates

Middle East Ceasefire Cuts Monthly Mortgage Payments by $120

A borrower with a $400,000 loan saves $120 a month on a current 30-year fixed mortgage. This decline follows five straight increases that had pushed rates to their highest level in nearly seven months. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped to 6.37% from 6.46%, according to Freddie Mac. These shifts were driven by an easing in bond yields. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped to 4.23% from 4.3% a week ago. Bond yields eased after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices plunged 18% to $92 a barrel on the news, while Brent crude oil prices fell from a late March peak of $115.85 a barrel to around $90 a barrel.

pending home sales indexhousing inventory shortage

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