Fragile Ceasefire Leaves Bitcoin Hostage to Geopolitics

Bitcoin is likely to consolidate between $68,000 and $75,000 over the next two weeks as markets wait to see if a ceasefire between the US and Iran holds. The asset hit $73,000 this week, a 10% bounce from early April lows of $66,000. This rally was driven by ceasefire optimism and short liquidations rather than structural bids, as Glassnode data shows spot demand remains muted. The price action follows a fragile truce that allows limited transit through the Strait of Hormuz for 12 to 15 ships per day, with tolls payable in bitcoin or yuan. The ceasefire remains unstable because Israel continues striking Lebanon and Iran's ten-point proposal requires reparations and de facto Iranian control of Hormuz. If hostilities resume before oil markets normalize, Bitcoin could drop to $60,000.