Existing-Home Sales Forecast Slashed to 4% Growth as Inventory Remains Low

Buyers are struggling to enter the market as the median existing-home sales price hit a March record of $408,800. This price increase marks the 33rd consecutive month of year-over-year gains. The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales decreased 3.6% month-over-month and 1% year-over-year in March, extending a multiyear slump.

Inventory remains a primary constraint. The market currently holds a four-month supply, whereas a balanced market requires five to six months. Potential sellers who secured lower mortgage rates during the pandemic are staying on the sidelines, creating a lock-in effect that caps inventory.

To provide buyers with necessary breathing room, the market requires a 20% to 30% boost in inventory. Lackluster first-quarter sales, rising mortgage rates, a middling jobs market, and low consumer confidence have led the National Association of Realtors to revise its 2026 existing-home sales forecast from a 14% increase to a 4% increase.