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Home/Markets & Investing/ETF INFLOWS DATA

Bitcoin's $81,600 Threshold Defines the Gap Between a Relief Rally and a Recovery

RM

Reese Montgomery

ETF inflows data · Apr 10, 2026

Bitcoin's $81,600 Threshold Defines the Gap Between a Relief Rally and a Recovery

Source: The Digital Ledger Data Terminal

Recent Bitcoin buyers are carrying losses, creating a mechanical constraint on upside momentum. This occurs because Bitcoin trades below its Short-Term Holder Cost Basis of $81,600, the aggregate breakeven price for Bitcoin bought in recent months.

Related Brief2d ago
cryptocurrency

Bitcoin's ETF Surge May Signal a Late-Cycle Peak and a Potential Drop to $10,000

Bitcoin holders face a potential price drop toward $10,000. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone argues the asset's explosive run past $100,000 following the launch of U.S. spot ETFs in 2024 may be over. Bitcoin peaked at $126,200 in 2025, coinciding with the U.S. stock market's capitalization relative to GDP reaching its highest level since 1928. McGlone describes this as a "pump then dump" phase, where risky assets briefly outperform before dropping sharply. Bitcoin ETFs have underperformed gold and the S&P 500 on a risk-adjusted basis, partly because Bitcoin is four times more volatile than the S&P 500. Gold rose around 135% since early 2024, while the iShares Bitcoin Trust by BlackRock boosted Bitcoin by about 50%, a return similar to the S&P 500. This divergence suggests capital may rotate away from high-risk crypto assets toward traditional safe havens. Bitcoin could decline along with other speculative assets, resulting in a price of $10,000.

Each rally toward this breakeven point delivers an exit opportunity to a cohort of trapped holders who accumulated at higher prices and waited out a drawdown. This distribution pressure makes rallies within the current range structurally vulnerable.

Related Brief2d ago
cryptocurrency

Bitcoin's rebound reveals institutional shift toward macro pricing

Bitcoin surged over 5% after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire starting April 8, 2026. The rally was driven by $429 million in short liquidations and $471.3 million in net inflows to US spot Bitcoin ETFs on Monday. This institutional capital is shifting Bitcoin's price movement from retail-driven sentiment toward macro pricing. As a result, Bitcoin's price is now highly sensitive to the Federal Reserve's rate cut path. This path is influenced by oil prices, which plummeted over 15% to $91.3 per barrel following the ceasefire. Oil prices will remain under pressure if the ceasefire is extended after the April 10 Islamabad negotiations.

The current price move from $67,000 to $72,000 followed a US-Israel-Iran ceasefire announcement that reduced volatility and lifted sentiment across risk assets. While the ceasefire eased the macro shock, the market remains in a bear market value zone.

Related Brief6h ago
cryptocurrency

Toncoin's Network Upgrade Drives Price Surge to $1.47

Toncoin is trading at $1.47, following a nearly 15% price increase in 24 hours. The surge is driven by a core protocol upgrade to the TON blockchain announced by Pavel Durov. The upgrade cut transaction finality to under one second and increased block speed, marking a tenfold improvement in network performance. This technical improvement provides technical backing to the network's integration with Telegram for payments, micro-transactions, and gaming.

According to Glassnode, the current setup is a bounce inside an ongoing bear phase. The rally is a bear market bounce rather than a durable recovery.

Related Brief16h ago
institutional trading

OTC Trading Desks Mute XRP Price Response to ETF Inflows

XRP price remains muted despite $120 million in weekly ETF-related inflows and accounting for more than 50% of total weekly inflows across crypto investment products. The lack of immediate price movement is a result of how ETF issuers execute large allocations. Rather than hitting public exchanges directly, these firms use over-the-counter (OTC) desks. These desks operate outside visible public order books. Institutional buyers request quotes from multiple liquidity providers and negotiate a price before settling trades. This process reduces slippage and prevents large transactions from pushing the market upward. XRP is currently unable to push past $1.35 despite a move above the $1.34 pivot level. The price has stalled just below $1.36, creating a ceiling that requires a clean break to shift the market mood. A drop below the $1.31–$1.32 floor would cause a slide back toward $1.28.

ETF inflows data

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