Bitcoin's ETF Surge May Signal a Late-Cycle Peak and a Potential Drop to $10,000

Bitcoin holders face a potential price drop toward $10,000. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone argues the asset's explosive run past $100,000 following the launch of U.S. spot ETFs in 2024 may be over. Bitcoin peaked at $126,200 in 2025, coinciding with the U.S. stock market's capitalization relative to GDP reaching its highest level since 1928. McGlone describes this as a "pump then dump" phase, where risky assets briefly outperform before dropping sharply. Bitcoin ETFs have underperformed gold and the S&P 500 on a risk-adjusted basis, partly because Bitcoin is four times more volatile than the S&P 500. Gold rose around 135% since early 2024, while the iShares Bitcoin Trust by BlackRock boosted Bitcoin by about 50%, a return similar to the S&P 500. This divergence suggests capital may rotate away from high-risk crypto assets toward traditional safe havens. Bitcoin could decline along with other speculative assets, resulting in a price of $10,000.