XRP’s Six-Month Losing Streak Hinges on a $1.33 Threshold — Not Sentiment, Not Hype, Just Price

A monthly close above $1.33 is all that stands between XRP and its first positive month in half a year. For six straight months, the token has closed lower, the longest losing streak since 2014. It’s down more than 60% from its $3.65 peak in July 2025. Each rally toward $1.37–$1.38 has been met with high-volume selling, reinforcing the bearish momentum.

The slide began in October 2025, when a Trump administration announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports triggered $19 billion in leveraged crypto positions being liquidated within 24 hours. XRP collapsed from above $2.80 to below $2.00. Attempts to recover in November and December faltered as ETF outflows and weakening institutional appetite drained momentum.

In February 2026, geopolitical tensions flared. The Strait of Hormuz closed. Oil prices surged past $100. The Federal Reserve responded by raising its inflation forecast, prompting institutional investors to exit risk assets. XRP’s 2026 catalysts — a potential commodity classification, Ripple partnership announcements, and ETF developments — couldn’t offset the macro shift.

Selling pressure has come from within. Some 60% of XRP’s circulating supply is underwater, held at an average cost basis near $1.44. Every time price approaches that level, holders exit positions. The pattern repeated throughout late 2025 and early 2026.

In April, the price fell from $1.37 to $1.33 after rejection at $1.38, with volume confirming distribution. The 100-hourly simple moving average sits above price, and a bearish trend line caps gains at $1.3550. Exchange liquidity has thinned, increasing volatility risk.

Despite $3.32 million in inflows to Ripple-linked ETFs — the only major crypto ETF with positive flows in early April — and whale wallets accumulating over 11 million XRP per day on average, the market remains fragile. Technical structure, not sentiment, now dictates the path. XRP only needs a close above $1.33 to break the losing streak.