U.S. Workers Face Lower Odds of Finding Work Than During the Pandemic Peak

The average American worker believes they have a 45% chance of securing a new role within three months if they quit today. This outlook is lower than the 46.2% chance reported in December 2020, during the peak of the pandemic. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Consumer Expectations Survey reveals this shift in sentiment. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that hiring in February dipped to its lowest level since April 2020. Goldman Sachs research indicates that AI substitution for human labor reduces monthly payroll growth by 25,000, while AI augmentation adds 9,000. This creates a net monthly payroll decline of 16,000 positions, primarily affecting less experienced workers. Fear of unemployment leads workers to "job-hugging," where they cling to their current roles. Some workers are paying reverse recruiters $1,500 per month to apply for roles on their behalf.