emergencyBreaking NewsKim Tucker Tremblay’s Boston Marathon Run Targets $9,000 for Hopkinton Emergency FundMortgage Rates Dip as Global Tensions Ease, but 'Lock-In' Effect Inhibits RefinancingA three-month extension on margin rule compliance could prevent forced sell-offs in Bangladesh’s distressed marketFundstrat Predicts S&P 500 Target of 7,300 as Sector Repricing Limits Pullback DepthStrong corporate earnings and investor skepticism keep markets from collapsing during Middle East crisisKim Tucker Tremblay’s Boston Marathon Run Targets $9,000 for Hopkinton Emergency FundMortgage Rates Dip as Global Tensions Ease, but 'Lock-In' Effect Inhibits RefinancingA three-month extension on margin rule compliance could prevent forced sell-offs in Bangladesh’s distressed marketFundstrat Predicts S&P 500 Target of 7,300 as Sector Repricing Limits Pullback DepthStrong corporate earnings and investor skepticism keep markets from collapsing during Middle East crisis
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Home/Markets & Investing/FED INTEREST RATE DECISION

U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Lowers Oil Prices and Shifts Fed Rate Cut Expectations

EL

Ellis Lockwood

Fed interest rate decision · Apr 8, 2026

U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Lowers Oil Prices and Shifts Fed Rate Cut Expectations

Source: DojiDoji Data Terminal

U.S. energy stocks tumbled in premarket trading as crude prices slid over 14% to below $100 a barrel. Exxon Mobil shed 6%, Chevron dropped 4.8%, and Occidental Petroleum lost 8.3%. This price drop followed the agreement of a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, which allows energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz to resume.

Related BriefJust now
geopolitics

Failed US-Iran talks raise crude prices and erode Federal Reserve rate-cut odds

Cyclicals and financials in the Dow Jones Index face pressure as the odds of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut fade. This shift follows a rise in crude oil prices driven by Iran's statement that it will continue managing the Strait of Hormuz. The volatility stems from the first round of talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan, which ended without a concrete agreement after Iranians refused to accept US terms. Sticky inflation supports the hawkish outlook, with US consumer inflation jumping to 3.3% in March, moving further from the Federal Reserve's 2.0% target.

Interest-rate futures now show investors see a 56% chance of a 25-basis-point cut by the end of 2026, a shift from expectations of no easing this year a day ago.

Related Brief1d ago
energy markets

Oil dips and stocks split on fragile hope in US-Iran talks

Elevated energy prices are directly affecting inflation and household purchasing power. The war in the Middle East, which disrupted global energy supplies, has pushed US consumer prices to their highest increase in nearly four years. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint for one-fifth of global oil and gas — remains at a fraction of pre-war levels, with most ships still linked to Iran. The US and Iran agreed to a cease-fire ending the six-week conflict, the worst energy-supply disruption in history, but markets remain on edge. Oil prices remain high despite a Friday dip: US crude settled at $96.57 a barrel, down $1.30, while Brent finished at $95.20. The slight retreat in oil followed scheduled peace talks, but the underlying cost pressure persists. US crude oil futures dipped $1.30 to $96.57 a barrel on Friday as markets reacted to scheduled US-Iran peace talks.

Fed interest rate decision

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