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Home/Markets & Investing/FED INTEREST RATE DECISION

The Fed's decentralized structure protects monetary policy from presidential control

MF

Maeve Fletcher

Fed interest rate decision · Apr 11, 2026

The Fed's decentralized structure protects monetary policy from presidential control

Source: The Digital Ledger Data Terminal

Monetary policy decisions would be made by regional Fed bank presidents who the president cannot control if the legal protections barring the Federal Reserve Board of Governors from removal by the president were overturned. This outcome is the central argument of former Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles, who says the Board of Governors should serve at the pleasure of the president.

Related Brief2d ago
monetary policy

Middle East Conflict Uncertainty Keeps Federal Reserve Rates Steady

Households' purchasing power is reduced when oil prices rise substantially. This reduction in purchasing power, alongside tightened financial conditions and reduced growth abroad, is the downstream consequence of the Middle East conflict. The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) held its benchmark overnight interest rate steady on March 17-18 amid elevated inflation and lackluster job gains. Officials expressed concern that the conflict in the Middle East, then in its third week, was an additional source of uncertainty. Participants noted that a prolonged conflict would lead to more persistent increases in energy prices, which would then pass through to the Fed's core inflation measure. Officials also noted that the conflict had weakened investor confidence, as evidenced by declines in U.S. equities. A protracted conflict could weigh on business sentiment and and result in a further softening in labor market conditions. This impact on the jobs outlook is cited as a potential reason for rate cuts later in the year.

The Supreme Court is considering rulings on the president's ability to dismiss members of independent regulatory agencies and whether the president erred in attempting to fire Fed Gov. Lisa Cook. If the court overturns the precedent protecting these agencies from at-will removal, the Board of Governors would become executive offices serving at the pleasure of the president.

Related Brief2h ago
inflation

Oil's retreat eases inflation fears, but April's pain may still come

Consumer sentiment fell 10.7% in April as inflation expectations surged to 4.8% from 3.8% in March. The jump reflects growing unease over prices, even as oil retreats from its war-driven highs. Brent crude for June delivery fell 0.8% to $95.20 per barrel Friday, and U.S. crude for May dropped 1.3% to $96.57. That’s down sharply from peaks above $119, a pullback fueled by planned U.S.-Iran talks in Pakistan this weekend. The diplomatic opening has eased fears of prolonged disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for global oil shipments. March inflation came in hot but slightly below forecasts, with gas prices feeding the surge. Yet analysts warn the full impact of earlier oil spikes has not yet flowed through. "While I’m glad to see the effects to be less than expected in March, the effects in April are now more likely to be worse," Jamie Cox of Harris Financial Group noted. The Federal Reserve is watching closely. With inflation still above its 2% target and expectations unanchoring, the central bank is likely to hold rates steady. Some officials have signaled a hike remains possible if price pressures persist.

Monetary policy is made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which consists of the Board of Governors and rotating regional Fed bank presidents. Because regional Fed bank presidents are not government officials and are not directly chosen by the president, they provide a resilience to short-term political direction.

Related Brief19h ago
us economy

US Economy Resilient Despite Federal Reserve Rate Hikes

Domestic consumption remains robust despite price pressures. Restaurant bookings are maintained at positive levels. This resilience is a result of financial conditions remaining lax, a result of stock market rallies and credit spreads offsetting the Federal Reserve's cycle of interest rate hikes. Workforce stability is the main pillar supporting consumer confidence. Hazard levels in the workforce are kept at historic lows, ensuring family income flows remain constant.

Quarles argues that the president could fire the entire board to gain a voting majority on the FOMC, but Senate confirmation requirements for new nominees would impede such a move. Until at least six board members are confirmed by the Senate, monetary policy decisions would be made by the regional Fed bank presidents.

Related Brief1d ago
inflation

March inflation surge set to cost consumers $8.4 billion in fuel as energy shock ripples through economy

Consumers have already paid $8.4 billion in extra fuel costs since the Iran war began, a surge that will register Friday as the sharpest monthly inflation spike since 2022. The March Consumer Price Index is forecast to rise 0.9 percent month over month, pushing annual headline inflation to 3.3 percent, driven by a 10.6 percent jump in energy prices. Gasoline now averages over $4 a gallon nationwide, a direct result of disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical petroleum corridor. This is not a typical energy blip: the U.S. has seen the largest one-month fuel cost increase since at least 1957. The shock is rippling beyond the pump. Transportation, food distribution, and manufacturing costs are rising, pushing core CPI up 0.3 percent for the month and 2.7 percent year over year. That keeps the Federal Reserve on hold. Markets assign a 98.4 percent probability to no change at the April 29 meeting, with rates expected to remain at 3.50–3.75 percent. Just months ago, the Fed projected one rate cut in 2026. Now, economists have erased that expectation. Some Fed officials have even flagged potential hikes if inflation accelerates further. Oxford Economics forecasts headline inflation will climb above 4 percent in April—despite a temporary ceasefire. The war hasn’t just moved oil. It has repriced the cost of moving everything.

Fed interest rate decision

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