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Home/Markets & Investing/FED INTEREST RATE DECISION

The EU’s Debt Is Not a Crisis—It’s a Political Choice to Protect Capital

FF

Felix Fitzgerald

Fed interest rate decision · Apr 12, 2026

The EU’s Debt Is Not a Crisis—It’s a Political Choice to Protect Capital

Source: The Digital Ledger Data Terminal

The European Union’s public debt is not spiraling out of control because of social spending or public sector wages. It is rising because governments have repeatedly chosen to shield capital from crisis costs—bailing out banks, subsidizing arms manufacturers, and financing pandemic responses through borrowing rather than taxing windfall profits. Since the 1980s, every major economic shock—from financial collapse to pandemic to war—has been met with a surge in public debt, while the beneficiaries of those crises kept their gains.

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monetary policy

Oil Price Spikes Establish a Higher-for-Longer Interest Rate Floor

Borrowing costs will remain elevated for longer. The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.5% to 3.75% during its March 18 policy meeting. The Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target remains a distant goal. Chair Jerome Powell cited inflation concerns and uncertainty from the war in the Iran war. Brent crude oil prices rose nearly 6% to around $105 a barrel, following geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East that had briefly pushed prices above $85 a barrel. March headline inflation is projected to rise 0.9% month-over-year, the largest jump since June 2022, reaching 3.4% year-over-year. Borrowing costs will remain elevated costs for longer.

The ECB now holds nearly €3.6 trillion in eurozone government bonds—about 20% of each nation’s debt. That concentration gives it immense power to block progressive fiscal policies. But it also reveals an escape route: canceling that debt would cut national obligations by roughly one-fifth, dismantling the primary argument for austerity. The debt itself is not the problem. The problem is that it was incurred to protect private profit, then weaponized to justify cuts to public services, climate investment, and development aid.

Related Brief2d ago
monetary policy

Australian households face a second hiking cycle as global inflation reignites

Australian households now face a second consecutive rate hiking cycle, compounding financial pressure just as they begin to recover from previous tightening. The Reserve Bank of Australia reversed its 2025 rate cuts in February 2025, responding to persistent services inflation that remains above target globally. This inflation is driven by wage-sensitive sectors and elevated government spending, which in Australia accounts for its highest share of GDP since World War II. Financial markets have priced in 56 basis points of additional RBA rate hikes by November 2025, potentially pushing the cash rate to 4.65 per cent—or beyond 5 per cent. Higher interest rates directly increase borrowing costs, particularly for mortgage holders, squeezing household budgets. The European Central Bank and Reserve Bank of New Zealand have also signaled imminent rate increases, mirroring a global policy reversal. US core PCE inflation rose at a 3.4 per cent annualised pace over six months, exceeding the Federal Reserve’s 2 per cent target. Debt issued during the 2020–2021 near-zero interest rate period is now maturing into a high-rate environment. Jeffrey Gundlach warns small and mid-sized companies face heightened risk of default and insolvency due to refinancing pressures. Without fiscal discipline, Australia may face a severe recession to suppress demand and achieve price stability.

In 2025, France’s debt stood at 114% of GDP, Italy’s at 138%, Greece’s at 152%. These figures are cited as proof of fiscal recklessness. But they obscure the real story: these debts were not caused by schools, hospitals, or green infrastructure. They were driven by tax giveaways to the wealthy and massive transfers to corporations during crises. When energy firms reaped record profits from the Ukraine war’s price spikes, governments did not impose windfall taxes. They borrowed instead.

Related Brief2d ago
monetary policy

The BOK holds rates steady as geopolitical stress and currency weakness outweigh domestic slowdown risks

The Bank of Korea left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.5% on April 10, 2026, marking the seventh consecutive hold and extending a 10-month pause in monetary policy changes. This decision underscores a central bank prioritizing external stability over domestic growth weakness, even as consumer prices rose 2.2% year on year in March—accelerating by 0.2 percentage point from the previous month. The Korean won, volatile amid global tensions, weakened to around 1,520 per dollar after briefly dipping toward 1,400 during a short-lived U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Geopolitical instability, particularly the ongoing conflict involving Iran, has amplified inflationary pressure and capital outflow risks, complicating any move toward rate cuts. Economists note that asset market overheating and financial stability concerns further constrain the BOK’s ability to ease policy, despite pockets of domestic slowdown. Growth remains narrowly tied to the chip sector, while household debt poses a latent threat. The OECD recently cut its 2026 real GDP growth forecast for Korea to 1.7% from 2.1%, citing geopolitical fallout. Incoming Governor Shin Hyun-song, who takes over from Rhee Chang-yong, has stated that stagflation remains unlikely and emphasized that Korea’s $423.6 billion in foreign exchange reserves are sufficient to absorb external shocks. Fiscal policy is also shaping the BOK’s caution. The central bank’s stance reveals a calculus where currency and inflation stability outweigh domestic weakness—a balance dictated not by local data alone, but by forces beyond Korea’s borders.

Central banks responded to inflation by raising interest rates—from 0% to 4.5% in Europe between 2022 and 2023—making debt servicing vastly more expensive. That decision transferred wealth upward, as private banks that borrowed at near-zero rates from the ECB then lent to governments at higher yields, pocketing the spread. The resulting budget pressures are now being used to justify slashing social spending, weakening labor rights, and abandoning climate commitments.

Related Brief3d ago
monetary policy

Rate Cuts Possible in 2026—If Inflation Falls and Geopolitics Cooperate

Traders are now holding back on major moves until clearer signals emerge on inflation and geopolitical developments. The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75% in April 2026. Policymakers indicated that rate cuts could occur in 2026 if inflation continues to trend toward the Fed's 2% target. Some Fed officials support rate cuts amid slowing job growth, while others warn of potential hikes if inflation remains elevated. Geopolitical tensions involving Iran are creating uncertainty for supply chains, energy prices, and economic stability. The Fed's uncertainty has led to a 'wait and see' approach ahead of the next policy meeting. Market pricing as of April 2026 gives a 75.6% probability that rates will remain unchanged through the end of 2026. A rate cut would increase liquidity, potentially boosting risk assets like cryptocurrencies. The December 2025 rate cut of 25 basis points triggered a surge in crypto market activity.

The solution is not repayment. It is refusal. Canceling the ECB-held debt would break the austerity logic. Expropriating energy, banking, and pharmaceutical industries would stop profit-driven underinvestment. Taxing extreme wealth and corporate windfalls would fund a public investment program centered on job creation, ecological transition, and universal services. The debt is not unsustainable. The system that created it is.

Related Brief3d ago
inflation

Higher energy and borrowing costs are now threatening US growth despite relative strength

Higher energy and borrowing costs are now threatening US growth despite relative strength. The US Commerce Department recently halved its growth estimate for the fourth quarter of 2025, revising it from 1.4% to just 0.7%. Spillovers from the US-Israeli war against Iran are materializing as higher energy prices — US gasoline rose 30% and diesel 40% in the first three weeks of the conflict — and rising borrowing costs. These are feeding broader price pressures, with higher input costs for semiconductors, fertilisers, and air travel now being passed on to consumers. Inflation, already persistent, has marked six consecutive years of the Federal Reserve missing its 2% target. The resulting cost-of-living pressures are hitting hardest in a K-shaped economy where wealth and opportunity are deeply unequal. Financial fragilities are emerging: private credit funds are restricting withdrawals, bank financing is eroding, and leverage in parts of the global bond market is drawing concern amid a sell-off. Over the past year, excessive hype-driven capital has flooded into AI and AI-adjacent ventures. In a stagflationary environment of slowing growth and high inflation, these risks could coalesce, tightening financial conditions. The Federal Reserve, already weakened by forecasting errors, policy slippages, and a turbulent leadership transition under political pressure, is ill-positioned to manage a crisis. The most vulnerable segments of the US population are at considerable risk from the convergence of inflation, slowing growth, and financial instability.

Fed interest rate decision

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