The economic hangover from the Iran conflict won’t end with a ceasefire

American consumers will keep paying $4.16 a gallon for gasoline, and the hit won’t stop at the pump. The ripple from blocked oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz is spilling into food, airfare, and even holiday shopping — with economists projecting a 1% jump in March’s consumer price index, the largest monthly increase since 2022. That surge isn’t driven by new demand or domestic policy. It’s the lagged effect of war. Though President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, the Strait of Hormuz remains shut. Twenty percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas is trapped. Tankers sit loaded in the Gulf, ready to move — but only if Iran allows it. Reopening the chokepoint isn’t a logistics fix. It’s a geopolitical decision. The ongoing bombing of Lebanon and disputes over ceasefire terms are holding the valve closed. Even if Iran relents tomorrow, energy prices won’t reset overnight. Economists at RSM US LLP expect months before oil markets stabilize. Natural gas output could take years to recover, damaged by strikes to production and refinement infrastructure. The US feels less pain than much of the world, but the pressure is real. Every sector that moves, heats, or ships goods carries the cost. The Fed sees the fundamentals of the economy as sound — but also sees the uncertainty. No one knows how long the conflict’s shadow will stretch. The ceasefire may be declared. The economic aftershocks are not over.