The $80,000 Bitcoin bet is now a $1.5 billion trade — but the market still expects a drop first
The $80,000 call option on Deribit has become the largest strike by open interest, with $1.5 billion tied to it. Bitcoin’s price rebounded above $70,000 after a temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire eased macro stress and oil prices fell. Geopolitical relief improved risk sentiment, prompting traders to roll downside puts from $61,000–$62,000 to $65,000–$66,000 and cut downside notional by over half. Traders simultaneously bought a call condor between $74,000 and $80,000 to position for near-term upside. Options skew in sub-seven-day maturities shifted from put dominance to a flatter profile as call demand returned. Implied volatility in short-dated options dropped into the low 40s as immediate stress pricing unwound. Glassnode noted that realized volatility compression reflects a calmer near-term outlook, though overall positioning remains light. Institutional demand improved with US spot Bitcoin ETFs recording $545.9 million in weekly inflows, the highest in five weeks. Morgan Stanley’s new Bitcoin ETF attracted over $46 billion in interest over its first two trading days, with projections of over $5 billion in assets within a year. The bank’s 16,000 financial advisers oversee $6.2 trillion in assets, creating a major distribution channel for BTC exposure. Despite bullish signals, on-chain data show investor price remains below long-term holder realized price, a pattern historically linked to extended accumulation phases. CryptoQuant reported that buy-and-sell pressure delta has moved off extreme sell levels but has not turned positive, indicating no sustained demand rebound. Seven-day taker flow in derivatives remains negative due to short calls and long puts, showing hedging persists at higher prices. Short gamma concentration above $70,000 creates structural resistance; a break below support could accelerate moves toward $65,000. Binance futures open interest rose by $350 million in seven days, the largest increase since March 20, while cumulative net taker volume lagged, signaling growing bearish leverage. Prediction markets assign only a 26% chance to Bitcoin reaching $80,000 this month and over 30% expect a return to $65,000. The market is pricing a higher ceiling but still anticipates a dip before any sustained breakout above $80,000.