Tesla’s stock is up 50% since 2022’s peak deliveries — even as production forecasts collapsed by 74%

Tesla’s share price is 50% higher than when its deliveries peaked in June 2022 — even as the company’s 1Q26 vehicle deliveries fell 74% short of earlier analyst estimates, missing by 1.008 million units. That collapse in output has dragged down every major financial projection for the company. Revenue expectations for 2026 have halved. EBIT forecasts have dropped 85%. EPS is down 78%. Free cash flow, once expected to generate $35.7 billion, is now projected to burn $4.9 billion. The outlook across all forecast periods has deteriorated materially. Yet the stock has risen. So have analyst expectations: the average price target has climbed 32% since mid-2022, even as fundamentals unraveled. J.P. Morgan’s Ryan Brinkman calls the disconnect “incredible” and warns investors are pricing in a dramatic recovery far beyond the current decade — a bet he says should be treated with skepticism. He rates Tesla Underweight (Sell), with a $145 price target, implying the stock is overvalued by 58%.