Structural Cattle Shortages Drive Beef Prices 18% Higher Than Biden Era
Retail beef prices have reached $6.74 per pound, a figure 18% higher than during President Joe Biden's last year in office. The price increase is driven by a U.S. cattle herd that has contracted for eight consecutive years, reaching a 75-year low of 86.2 million head as of January 1, 2026. This structural shortage was compounded by three simultaneous shocks in early 2026. A suspension of cattle imports from Mexico was reinstated in May, affecting a country that supplies 62% of U.S. live cattle imports. Wildfires across the Nebraska plains destroyed grazing land, forcing cattle to market early. Simultaneously, 3,800 workers at the JBS N.V. packing plant in Greeley, Colorado, struck for three weeks, idling a facility that handles 5% to 7% of total U.S. beef slaughter capacity. Consequently, the USDA lowered its 2026 beef production projection by 110 million pounds to 25.810 billion pounds.
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