emergencyBreaking NewsLouisiana’s $47 billion budget increases school funding by $47 per pupil — but directs $144 million to retirement debt instead of classroomsLos Angeles Home Values Rise 0.8% in March as Inventory Increases 4.9%Home Sales Stagnate Despite Lower Rates as Price and Rate Walls Block BuyersTight supply keeps home prices at record highs despite falling demandFreddie Mac bought the loan. The debt coverage ratio is now negative 0.37.Louisiana’s $47 billion budget increases school funding by $47 per pupil — but directs $144 million to retirement debt instead of classroomsLos Angeles Home Values Rise 0.8% in March as Inventory Increases 4.9%Home Sales Stagnate Despite Lower Rates as Price and Rate Walls Block BuyersTight supply keeps home prices at record highs despite falling demandFreddie Mac bought the loan. The debt coverage ratio is now negative 0.37.
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Institutional Financial Analysis

Home/Real Estate/HOUSING INVENTORY SHORTAGE · PENDING HOME SALES INDEX

Rising mortgage rates keep existing-home sales from recovering despite inventory growth

BA

Brett Ashworth

housing inventory shortage · Apr 13, 2026

Rising mortgage rates keep existing-home sales from recovering despite inventory growth

Source: DojiDoji Data Terminal

Existing-home sales fell 3.6% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million. Single-family sales fell 3.5% to an annual rate of 3.63 million, while condo and co-op sales fell 5.4% to 350,000. The decline in sales activity occurred as mortgage rates averaged 6.18% for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in March, up from 6.05% in February.

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real estate

Tight supply keeps home prices at record highs despite falling demand

Buyers may gain more negotiating power as demand for existing homes falls. U.S. home sales fell 3.6% in March, the lowest for that month since 2009. The National Association of Realtors reported that lower consumer confidence and softer job growth are holding buyers back. Despite the slowing sales, the supply of homes remains tight. The median U.S. existing-home price is now $408,800, a 1.4% increase from one year ago and a record high for the month of March. Buyers gain more negotiating power.

Despite a 3.0% increase in inventory from February and a 2.3% increase from March 2025, total housing inventory stood at 1.36 million units. This represents a 4.1-month supply, which remains below historical norms.

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housing market

Higher mortgage rates push first-time buyers to record age of 40

The median age of first-time home buyers has reached 40, a record high, as rising mortgage rates and tight supply push ownership further out of reach. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage climbed to 6.18% in March, up from 6.05% the month before, adding hundreds of dollars in monthly payments for would-be buyers. That increase helped drive existing home sales down 3.6% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales are now 1% below last year’s pace. The group has slashed its 2026 forecast for existing home sales to a 4% increase, down sharply from the 14% gain it projected late last year. Tight inventory and rising borrowing costs are delaying homeownership for a generation of buyers.

Median existing-home prices rose to $408,800, marking the 33rd consecutive month of price increases. Single-family homes reached a median price of $412,400, up 1.3%, and condos and co-ops reached a median price of $371,500, up 2.3%.

Related Brief1d ago
housing market

Housing inventory growth is nearing zero — and could turn negative as mortgage rates hover below 6.5%

National housing inventory rose by just 1,517 units in the week of April 3–10, 2026, compared to a 11,263-unit rise the same week in 2025. That gap isn’t noise — it’s momentum shifting toward a likely negative year-over-year inventory reading by mid-2026. The brake on supply isn’t sudden. It’s been tightening since mortgage rates settled below 6.5%, reducing the urgency for homeowners to trade up or cash out. Rates ended the week at 6.39%, down from 6.43%, and have not crossed 7% in months — a level that historically pushes more sellers into the market. But in 2026, even with brief spikes toward 6.64% due to the Iran conflict, the rate curve has been the lowest since 2022. That stability keeps sellers sitting. New listings last week totaled 70,244, down from 76,271 the same week last year. That shortfall follows a trend: despite seasonal expectations of 80,000–100,000 new listings during peak months, the market has not seen a single week in that range. Inventory growth has decelerated from 33% year-over-year in mid-2025 to just 3.21% in early April 2026. The slowdown isn’t isolated. Pending sales fell to 68,864 last week from 71,632 a year earlier. Purchase applications were down 7% year over year, despite a 1% weekly gain. The 10-year yield, which ended the week at 4.32%, has held below levels that would push mortgage spreads wider. And while spreads closed at 2.05% — down from 2.11% — they remain better than 2023–2025 peaks. Had 2023’s worst spreads applied today, mortgage rates would be 7.45%, not 6.39%. But the current environment isn’t punishing borrowing — it’s freezing movement. If trends hold, national housing inventory could post negative year-over-year growth by mid-2026.

Because of rising mortgage rates, the National Association of Realtors revised its 2026 forecasts. Existing-home sales are now expected to increase by 4%, a reduction from prior estimates. New-home sales are now projected to be flat, down from a previous forecast of 5% growth. Median home prices are projected to rise 4% in 2026.

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hedge funds

Third Point exits CoStar as activist push for Homes.com divestiture fails

Third Point has sold its shares of CoStar Group, ending its activist investor push. The hedge fund had previously called for the replacement of the majority of the board of directors and a refocus on the core commercial real estate business. Third Point had specifically demanded that CoStar consider strategic alternatives for Homes.com, including selling or shuttering the platform. CoStar responded that divesting Homes.com would the firm and its investors cause irreparable harm. Third Point concluded its activist investor push by divesting its shares.

housing inventory shortagepending home sales index

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