Retail Traders Migrate to Prediction Markets as Coinbase Volume Drops 30%
CW
Charlie Winters
Coinbase · Apr 10, 2026
Source: DojiDoji Data Terminal
Coinbase stock has fallen 30% year-to-date as retail traders shift their activity to prediction markets. In March 2026, nominal trading volume in prediction markets hit $25.7 billion, with Kalshi recording $13.1 billion and Polymarket recording $10.6 billion. This monthly volume represents roughly 16% of Coinbase's entire Q1 spot volume.
Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish downgraded Coinbase Global to Underweight and cut the price target to $140 from $148. Budish reports that global crypto trading activity has declined to levels not seen since the end of 2023. Coinbase Q1 spot volume fell 30% from the prior quarter to $189 billion. Barclays models transaction revenues of $678 million for the period, which is $198 million short of the Street's $876 million estimate.
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