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Home/Markets & Investing/COINBASE

Retail Traders Migrate to Prediction Markets as Coinbase Volume Drops 30%

CW

Charlie Winters

Coinbase · Apr 10, 2026

Retail Traders Migrate to Prediction Markets as Coinbase Volume Drops 30%

Source: DojiDoji Data Terminal

Coinbase stock has fallen 30% year-to-date as retail traders shift their activity to prediction markets. In March 2026, nominal trading volume in prediction markets hit $25.7 billion, with Kalshi recording $13.1 billion and Polymarket recording $10.6 billion. This monthly volume represents roughly 16% of Coinbase's entire Q1 spot volume.

Related Brief4h ago
prediction markets

Robinhood excludes mention markets to block insider trading in prediction bets

Robinhood excludes mention markets where traders bet on specific words in speeches to block the misuse of private or sensitive information. The company expects $300 million in annual revenue from its expansion into prediction markets through a partnership with Kalshi. By avoiding these specific contracts, the firm reduces its exposure to legal and reputational risks associated with insider trading. The move follows cases where individuals were charged with using classified military information or leaked Nobel Peace Prize details to place bets. Robinhood partners with Kalshi, which requires identity verification and adherence to U.S. rules, unlike rival Polymarket, which allows trading via crypto wallets without full identity checks.

Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish downgraded Coinbase Global to Underweight and cut the price target to $140 from $148. Budish reports that global crypto trading activity has declined to levels not seen since the end of 2023. Coinbase Q1 spot volume fell 30% from the prior quarter to $189 billion. Barclays models transaction revenues of $678 million for the period, which is $198 million short of the Street's $876 million estimate.

Related Brief1d ago
corporate governance

A director’s departure sets off no immediate financial change — but signals a shift in governance that investors must now price in

The departure of a single director does not alter a balance sheet. It does not change revenue, profit, or trading volume. But when that director is described as having made 'invaluable contributions' to strategy and governance, the market must reassess the quality of oversight at one of crypto’s most visible public companies. On April 7, 2026, Coinbase Global, Inc. disclosed that Paul Clement will not seek re-election to its Board at the upcoming Annual Meeting of Shareholders. The Board will shrink from ten to nine members as a result. The announcement arrived via Form 8-K — the SEC’s mechanism for reporting material events — confirming that the company treats this as a governance inflection, not routine turnover. No successor was named. No rationale beyond timing was offered. What is clear is that a figure deemed influential in shaping Coinbase’s direction is exiting, and the boardroom is contracting. For investors, the question is no longer whether the company complies with disclosure rules — it does — but whether a smaller board with an open seat can maintain the same depth of scrutiny amid increasing regulatory pressure on crypto firms. A nine-member board may act faster. It may also ask fewer hard questions. That trade-off now factors into the valuation.

Coinbase

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