Prediction Markets Price in a Fragile US-Iran Ceasefire

Global equities rose and Bitcoin rallied above $70,000 as the market responded to the news of a two-week conditional ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. Oil briefly dipped below $100 per barrel on expectations that access to the Strait of Hormuz would be restored. This relief trade assumes the deal holds.

President Donald Trump announced the ceasefire on April 7, which stopped direct U.S.-Iran hostilities. The deal, brokered with mediation assistance from Pakistan, requires Iran to allow the complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi have wagered over $16.5 million on the outcome of the military campaign. On Polymarket, the market tracking when Trump will officially declare an end to military operations, initiated Feb. 28, 2026, shows April 30 as the date with the highest probability at 42%.

Skepticism remains regarding the duration of the truce. A separate Polymarket event bet asks whether the U.S. government will officially declare an end to the ceasefire itself before the two-week window closes. April 21 leads with 26% odds.

Long-term normalization is viewed as unlikely. A market on Kalshi tracking whether the U.S. will reopen its embassy or consulate in Iran by Jan. 1, 2027, shows only 16% odds in favor.