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Home/Markets & Investing/BITCOIN ETF

Oil's 15% collapse reveals the scale of geopolitical risk premiums

NG

Noa Gallagher

Bitcoin ETF · Apr 12, 2026

Oil's 15% collapse reveals the scale of geopolitical risk premiums

Source: The Digital Ledger Data Terminal

Expectations for at least one Federal Reserve rate cut this year increased to approximately 35% as oil prices collapsed. Brent crude tumbled 15.5% to $92.28 per barrel, the largest single-day decline since April 2020. The price drop follows a conditional two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, in which Iran committed to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The reopening removes the immediate risk of supply disruptions in a waterway through which one-fifth of global oil shipments transit daily.

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Bitcoin's Rally to $73,000 Masked by Falling Trading Volume and Rising Inflation

Centralized exchange trading volume fell 48% from its October 2025 peak to $4.3 trillion in March, coinciding with a price rise to $73,085. Gasoline prices rose 21.2% in March, the largest monthly increase since the 1967. Headline CPI climbed to 3.3% year over year, up from 2.4% in February. These figures signal that inflation risks persist. The Federal Reserve is pressured to keep rates elevated. This creates pressure on risk assets including Bitcoin.

The removal of this geopolitical risk triggered a broad rally in risk assets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 1,300 points, while Bitcoin reached $72,700. The decline in crude prices creates a disinflationary impulse by reducing gasoline and transportation costs, which alters the calculus for monetary policy.

Related Brief2d ago
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A $2 billion surge in Bitcoin and Ethereum open interest doesn’t predict price—liquidity and geopolitical tension do

Bitcoin and Ethereum open interest each surged by over $2 billion as U.S.-Iran tensions fueled speculative positioning in crypto derivatives. The increase reflects aggressive bets in futures and options markets—but not a guaranteed rally. Open interest measures outstanding derivative contracts, not actual buying pressure in spot markets. At 34.5¢, a YES share for Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 31 pays $1 if the target is met, implying roughly a 34.5% market-implied probability. Moving that market by five points requires $2,908 in volume—a manageable threshold. The $150,000 market is far thinner, with just $792 able to shift prices by the same margin, making it highly susceptible to volatility or manipulation. Over the past day, only $3,490 in USDC changed hands across these markets, underscoring that activity remains concentrated in leveraged speculation, not broad-based demand. Geopolitical risk is amplifying the move, with investors using crypto as a perceived hedge. But real momentum will depend on institutional catalysts: MicroStrategy’s acquisition patterns, ARK Invest’s positions, or an SEC decision on ETF approvals. Without those, the open interest surge is noise, not signal.

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