MSCI Stock Suggests 21% Upside Based on Intrinsic Value Model Despite Trading Below $565

MSCI stock trades at $561, below the $705.09 intrinsic value estimated by the GF Value model. The stock is trading at a 21% discount to its calculated intrinsic value, according to GuruFocus, which suggests the market may be undervaluing the company’s recurring, subscription-heavy revenue model. MSCI’s Index segment generated $479.1 million in revenue in Q4 2025, up 14% year-over-year, driven by asset-based fee growth of 20.7% as ETFs linked to MSCI equity indices pulled in record inflows. ETF inflows alone hit $67 billion in the quarter, with total AUM benchmarked to MSCI indices reaching $7 trillion by year end. The company’s adjusted EBITDA margin hit 62.2% in Q4 2025, up from 60.8% a year earlier, reflecting the high-margin nature of its subscription-based business. MSCI reports Q1 2026 earnings on April 21, with consensus estimates at $4.37–$4.40 per share and $834 million in revenue, representing 9% and 12% year-over-year growth, respectively.