Mortgage Rates Rise to 6.12% as Inflation Forecasts Shift

The average 30-year mortgage rate is 6.12% as of April 16, 2026, up from 5.75% on March 2, 2026. The average 15-year mortgage rate is 5.50% and the average 30-year refinance rate is 6.61%. The median 15-year refinance rate is 5.72%. These increases are driven by the 10-year Treasury yield, which drives mortgage rates. The 10-year Treasury yield moves in response to rising inflation expectations. The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts inflation will reach 4% by theend of 2026, up from an original forecast of 3.2%. Geopolitical tensions have increased oil prices, which has pushed inflation higher than previously expected. Because of these inflation risks, the Mortgage Bankers Association has removed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. The average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach 6.2% by the end of 2026.