Michael Burry’s Put Options Signal Deep Skepticism as Palantir Trades at More Than Double Its Estimated Fair Value

Palantir’s current stock price of $127.60 offers minimal margin of safety, with the company trading at more than double its GF Value™ estimate of $61.23 — a gap that implies a 108.4% overvaluation. This disconnect forms the foundation of investor Michael Burry’s sustained bearish bet, as he continues to hold long-term put options with strike prices at $100 (expiring December 19, 2026) and $50 (expiring June 17, 2027). His position is not speculative timing; it is a declaration that the market will eventually correct what he and valuation models see as a fundamental imbalance.

The GF Value™ metric, which estimates intrinsic value based on historical multiples and earnings growth, flags Palantir as severely overpriced. Even though the stock’s trailing P/E ratio of 202.54 is below its five-year median of 294.06, it remains astronomically high, suggesting investors are still paying a steep premium for anticipated future growth. Yet growth expectations alone cannot justify the current multiple if earnings fail to scale proportionally.

Compounding the concern, insiders have sold $432.9 million in shares over the past three months — a signal that those closest to the company may not share the market’s optimism. While a public endorsement from former President Donald Trump briefly lifted the stock, price momentum has reversed, with Palantir down 28% year-to-date.

Burry’s put options will only pay off if shares fall below $100 or $50 by their respective expiration dates. For that to happen, the market must reprice Palantir not just downward, but toward a level aligned with its fundamentals. The bet isn’t merely on a correction — it’s on the triumph of value over narrative.