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Home/Markets & Investing/MICHAEL BURRY

Michael Burry maintains Palantir short as valuation gap exceeds $77 per share

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Robin Falconer

Michael Burry · Apr 10, 2026

Michael Burry maintains Palantir short as valuation gap exceeds $77 per share

Source: The Digital Ledger Data Terminal

Palantir stock trades at approximately $127 per share, but Michael Burry believes the company's fundamental value is well under $50. This $77-per-share gap represents the core of Burry's bearish position, which he is maintaining despite a recent boost from President Donald Trump.

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equities

Anthropic's ARR growth reveals Palantir's scale inefficiency

Palantir stock faces a forecasted multiyear decline. This projection follows Michael Burry's identification of Anthropic's annual recurring revenue climbing from $9 billion to $30 billion in a few months. Burry notes that enterprises are shifting toward cheaper and more intuitive AI solutions. Palantir took 20 years to reach $5 billion in annual recurring revenue. Burry has positioned for this decline through long-dated put options.

Burry disclosed on Substack that he holds $50-strike puts expiring June 17, 2027, and $100-strike puts expiring Dec. 19, 2026. He first established his short position in autumn 2025 and has renewed it on several occasions since.

Related Brief1d ago
short selling

Michael Burry’s Palantir Short Points to a $77 Gap Between Price and His Estimate of Fundamental Value

Palantir stock traded at approximately $127 per share on Friday, more than double Michael Burry’s estimate of its fundamental value. Burry holds long-dated put options on the company with strike prices of $50 and $100, including June 2027 $50 puts and December 2026 $100 puts, and has no plans to exit the position. He believes the stock’s intrinsic worth is well under $50 per share, creating a gap of over $77 between current price and his valuation. The difference underscores a stark divergence between market sentiment and Burry’s assessment. He has maintained this bearish stance since the fall of 2025, rolling the position multiple times. Despite a recent post by President Trump praising Palantir’s “great warfighting capabilities” on Truth Social, the stock remains down about 28% in 2026. Palantir has secured new government contracts and expanded its work with the Pentagon during Trump’s second term, yet Burry sees no justification for its premium valuation.

President Donald Trump recently praised Palantir's "great warfighting capabilities and equipment" on Truth Social, which temporarily lifted the stock from its intraday lows. Despite this, Palantir stock is on track for a 13% weekly decline and has lost approximately 28% of its value in 2026.

Related Brief2d ago
ai valuation

Anthropic captures 73% of new enterprise AI spending as Palantir loses ground

Nearly one in four businesses on the financial platform Ramp now pay for Anthropic. A year ago, this figure stood at one in 25. This shift is driven by the the plug-and-play AI tools that businesses can integrate faster than the complex systems provided by Palantir. According to investor Michael Burry, 73% of new enterprise AI spending is going to Anthropic, with 73% of new paying customers choosing Claude over OpenAI. Anthropic's annual recurring revenue surged from $9 billion to $30 billion in just months, a pace that contrasts with Palantir's 20-year climb to $5 billion in revenue. Over the same period, OpenAI experienced a 1.5% decline in business customers. Palantir shares fell about 6% on the week's Wednesday. The company trades at a forward earnings multiple well above sector averages.

Palantir's growth figures are strong: fourth-quarter 2025 revenue was $1.4 billion, up 70% year over year, and U.S. commercial revenue rose 137% to $507 million. The company has guided for $7.2 billion in full-year 2026 revenue. Even with the recent retreat from a high of roughly $200, the stock trades at 142 times expected earnings, the third-highest multiple in the S&P 500.

Related Brief2d ago
ai investing

Enterprise AI Spending Is Pivoting to User-Friendly Models, Not Legacy Platforms

Enterprise AI spending is now favoring platforms that are easy to integrate and scale, not those built on complex, custom architectures. Michael Burry's assessment positions Anthropic as the emerging leader in this shift, overtaking Palantir in relevance. Anthropic's growth stems from rising demand for accessible, scalable AI—exemplified by its Claude model—which aligns with the operational pace of modern businesses. Enterprises no longer want to wait months for tailored deployments; they want AI that works out of the box. Palantir’s model, built on intensive data integration and long deployment cycles, is increasingly misaligned with that need. As companies redirect budgets toward faster, more flexible tools, market valuations will follow. Business Insider reports this transition could redefine growth benchmarks for AI investment.

Burry's bear case is based on the view that Palantir functions as a professional services firm rather than a technology product company, as it embeds engineers at client sites for extended periods. He previously argued that Anthropic is capturing enterprise AI spending at Palantir's expense, pointing to Anthropic's ARR scaling from $9 billion to $30 billion within months, while Palantir took two decades to reach $5 billion in revenue.

Related Brief1d ago
investing

Michael Burry's Chinese E-commerce Bets Bets on a Price Dropy

JD.com's ADR rose 2.2% on Friday. This movement followed an announcement by investor Michael Burry that he had purchased shares of the Chinese e-commerce company. In a post to paid Substack subscribers, Burry stated that Alibaba is a new position in his portfolio, representing slightly above 6%. JD.com is a significant addition to the portfolio and represents a slightly higher proportion than Alibaba. Burry wrote that the recent weakness in the company's performance provided a highly attractive entry point.

Palantir's fundamental value is well under $50 per share.

Related Brief1d ago
stock analysis

Palantir’s $100 support breaks as war premium unwinds and Michael Burry’s $46 target looms

Palantir’s stock is now tracking toward $100 after breaking below key technical support, as the short-term boost from geopolitical risk unwinds and scrutiny over valuation intensifies. The retreat follows the collapse of the ‘war premium’ that lifted shares earlier this year, when escalating tensions involving Iran raised expectations for increased defense and intelligence spending. Palantir, with its established role in government and military contracts, was a primary beneficiary of that surge. But the announcement of a ceasefire has reversed the narrative, cooling speculative demand and exposing underlying concerns. Michael Burry’s public critique amplified the shift, drawing attention to Anthropic’s rapid revenue growth and questioning whether Palantir can justify its premium valuation amid rising competition. His $46 price target now looms as a bearish reference. Even as the company reports strong revenue across commercial and government segments, the market is no longer rewarding growth without clear paths to profitability. Investor focus has pivoted to capital efficiency, and Palantir’s reliance on government contracts introduces added sensitivity to political and budgetary cycles. Technically, the breakdown below the 50-week simple moving average has shifted momentum, with former support levels now acting as resistance. A failed rebound at the 100-day moving average near $155 confirmed selling pressure, and a break below the 200-day moving average would clear the way for a retest of $100 as the next major downside threshold.

Michael Burry

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