emergencyBreaking NewsEther Outperforms Bitcoin as Capital Rotates Into Spot ETFsInstitutional ETF inflows anchor Bitcoin above $72,000 as speculators and commercials divergeLifestyle Communities sales drop 28% as Victorian property market softensBinance’s Monitoring Tag Is a De Facto Delisting NoticeS&P 500 Erases War Losses as Oil Prices Dip Below $100Ether Outperforms Bitcoin as Capital Rotates Into Spot ETFsInstitutional ETF inflows anchor Bitcoin above $72,000 as speculators and commercials divergeLifestyle Communities sales drop 28% as Victorian property market softensBinance’s Monitoring Tag Is a De Facto Delisting NoticeS&P 500 Erases War Losses as Oil Prices Dip Below $100
DoiDoi
Credit & Lendingexpand_more
Credit CardsPersonal LoansStudent Loans
Markets & Investingexpand_more
Stocks & ETFsCrypto & BlockchainFed & Macro
Retirement & Benefitsexpand_more
401(k) & IRASocial SecurityRetirement Policy
Real Estateexpand_more
Mortgage RatesHousing Market
Financial Foundationexpand_more
Budgeting & SavingInsurance
Latest News
MarketsPortfolio
The Digital Ledger
Credit & Lending
Markets & Investing
Retirement & Benefits
Real Estate
Financial Foundation
Latest News
Dashboards

Institutional Financial Analysis

Home/Markets & Investing/FED INTEREST RATE DECISION

Larger tax refunds and AI spending are offsetting market volatility, but the real test comes when oil prices stay above $100

TR

Theo Rutherford

Fed interest rate decision · Apr 14, 2026

Larger tax refunds and AI spending are offsetting market volatility, but the real test comes when oil prices stay above $100

Source: DojiDoji Data Terminal

The average tax refund this season is $3,570, an 11% increase from last year, delivering a timely jolt to consumer spending just as market volatility tests investor confidence. That extra cash in Americans’ pockets stems from the One Big Beautiful Bill, which cut taxes retroactively for 2025—many taxpayers didn’t adjust their withholding, so the IRS is now cutting larger checks. Since consumer spending drives about two-thirds of economic activity, this surge in refunds provides a measurable buffer against headwinds.

Related Brief1d ago
geopolitical risk

Geopolitical tension in the Middle East pushes Wall Street indices lower

Wall Street's main indices fell Tuesday as investors parsed comments from the US and Iran for clues on the Middle East conflict. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 408.87 points, or 0.88%, to 46,261.01. The S&P 500 lost 66.46 points, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 326.15 points, or 1.45%, to 21,677.16. This decline followed a US official's report that the country had struck military targets on Iran's Kharg Island, a hub of oil exports. Iran responded by stating it would no longer hold back from hitting infrastructure of its Gulf neighbors and warned that the Bab El-Mandeb waterway could be closed. These developments occurred ahead of President Donald Trump's Tuesday deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran showed no sign of agreeing to.

At the same time, AI infrastructure spending by hyperscalers like Alphabet and Amazon is set to reach at least $625 billion this year, a wave of capital investment that Bridgewater projects will add 1.4 percentage points to U.S. GDP growth in 2025 and another 1.5 in 2026. This spending shows no sign of slowing, even amid geopolitical tension. It’s being reinforced by a broader industrial renaissance, fueled by federal policy: the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022, the proposed Made in America Jobs Act of 2026, and tax incentives from last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill—all aligning to bring manufacturing and semiconductor production back onshore.

Related Brief9h ago
consumer spending

Higher gas prices are pulling down consumer spending — and GDP growth forecasts

Higher gas prices are already reducing real disposable income for U.S. households, and that loss is starting to show up where it matters: in spending on cars, discretionary goods, and services. As regular unleaded hit $4.16 a gallon on April 8 — the highest since 2022 — the squeeze on consumers intensified. Goldman Sachs now expects this pressure to drag consumption growth in 2026 down to 1.2%, from a prior forecast of just over 2%. The hit to spending isn’t theoretical. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index plunged to 47.6 in early April, the weakest reading in the survey’s history, with consumers directly citing soaring gas prices and the Iran conflict as reasons for their pessimism. With oil spiking to $103 a barrel on Monday after peace talks collapsed — reversing last week’s drop to $94.26 — the reprieve was brief. Geopolitical risks, including the potential continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, mean elevated fuel prices are likely to persist. Goldman Sachs has downgraded its 2026 Q4/Q4 GDP growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 2.0%, attributing most of the drag to weaker consumer spending. As households tighten budgets, discount retailers are seeing a shift: Walmart, Target, and Costco have all gained over the past month. The signal is clear — when gas prices rise, disposable income falls, and so does the appetite for everything beyond essentials.

Yet the S&P 500 remains nearly 6% below its late January peak, having briefly dipped more than 9% in late March. The drag comes from uncertainty around the Middle East war, particularly the risk of prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have stayed above $100 a barrel for Brent crude, and every comment from President Donald Trump sends markets swinging. The Fed futures market reflects this tension: traders now see a 78% chance the central bank won’t cut rates at all in 2025, with inflation still a live concern.

Related Brief13h ago
equity markets

Iran Truce Rally Leaves Stocks Overbought and Vulnerable to Geopolitical Risk

Investors may see limited further gains in the equity markets as stocks have entered overbought conditions. This rally was triggered by Donald Trump's announcement of a two-week pause in strikes on Iran, which eased geopolitical tensions that had weighed on equities since early March. The S&P 500 rose 3.6% for the week, the Nasdaq Composite gained 4.7%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 3%. Jim Cramer noted the market rebounded after being oversold, but warned that current optimism is misplaced given the fragile nature of the ceasefire. Overbought conditions and overconfidence may limit further gains.

The current setup hinges on duration. If oil prices stay above $100 only for a quarter or two, the Fed expects little economic damage. But if they persist, the boost from tax refunds and AI-driven growth could erode. The real test isn’t whether the war ends—it’s how long the economic pressure lasts when it does.

Related Brief13h ago
monetary policy

Inflation Pressured by Geopolitics Leaves Fed on Hold as Consumers Pay More at the Pump

Rising gasoline prices are feeding inflation, leaving the Federal Reserve unlikely to change interest rates this month despite a resilient labor market. The Fed’s benchmark rate sits between 3.5% and 3.75%, and according to the CME FedWatch tool, there’s a 97% chance it remains unchanged at the April 28 meeting. Traders assign just a 2.6% probability to a 25 basis point hike. Inflation over the past year has reached 3.3%, a figure increasingly shaped not by domestic demand but by energy prices. Those prices, in turn, are surging due to geopolitical instability centered on Iran. The country controls the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for 20 million barrels of oil per day—20% of global supply. Escalating hostilities have disrupted shipping, tightened oil markets, and pushed pump prices higher. That spike in gasoline costs is now a direct input into inflation, constraining the Fed’s options. At the same time, the March jobs report added 178,000 nonfarm positions with unemployment steady at 4.3%, signaling economic strength. Together, persistent inflation and solid employment reduce the urgency for any monetary shift. Investors are pricing in stability, but economists like Mohamed El-Erian caution that erratic signals from policymakers or geopolitical developments could reignite volatility, eroding the Fed’s credibility in delivering predictable policy. The terminal consequence is this: consumers are paying more at the pump, and that cost is locking the Fed in place.

Fed interest rate decision

The Ledger Morning

The essential intelligence to start your trading day. Delivered 6:00 AM EST.

Join 50,000+ professionals who start their day with The Digital Ledger.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

Read More Analysis

new home sales data

Lifestyle Communities sales drop 28% as Victorian property market softens

Downsizer buyers are extending their decision-making cycles. This caution is driven by the sale of existing homes in a s…

BlackRock

Three BlackRock ETFs now yield over 5%—but the income comes with rising duration and credit risk

Three BlackRock ETFs now yield over 5%—but the income comes with rising duration and credit risk. The iShares J.P. Morg…

DoiDoi

© 2026 DojiDoji. All rights reserved.

EditorialEditorial GuidelinesCorrections
LegalPrivacy PolicyTerms of Service
DisclosureSEC DisclosuresAd Choice
SocialX (Twitter)LinkedIn