Job Seekers Pay $1,500 a Month to Offset a 45% Hiring Probability

Job seekers are paying reverse recruiters $1,500 per month to apply for roles on their behalf. This spending follows a shift in sentiment where the average American believes they have a 45% chance of landing a new job within three months if they lost their employment today. The probability is lower than the 46.2% chance reported in December 2020 during the peak of the pandemic, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Consumer Expectations Survey.

This outlook aligns with a labor market where the median duration of unemployment reached 11.5 weeks as of March 2025, nearly two weeks longer than the same time last year. More than 25% of unemployed workers have been out of work for 27 weeks or more. Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows hiring in February dipped to its lowest level since April 2020.

Goldman Sachs research indicates AI substitution for human labor reduces monthly payroll growth by 25,000, while AI augmentation adds 9,000. The net result is a monthly payroll decline of 16,000 positions, primarily affecting less experienced workers. These conditions have led to "job-hugging," where workers cling to current roles out of fear of unemployment. Some are now paying reverse recruiters $1,500 per month to apply for roles.