Higher Coinbase price target reflects war-driven trading volume bets, not crypto adoption

Coinbase shares are being revalued not on the strength of crypto adoption, but on Wall Street’s bet that war drives trading volume. Piper Sandler raised its price target to $180 from $150, citing expectations of a positive tone from management on trading volume outlook ahead of Q1 earnings. The firm sees futures trading as a key driver, with the ongoing Iran War fueling volatility in global energy and commodities markets. That turbulence, not blockchain innovation or regulatory clarity, is what’s pricing into the stock. Piper Sandler maintains a Neutral rating, underscoring skepticism despite the higher target. The firm is cautious about tough year-over-year comparisons facing exchanges in Q2. But if the conflict persists, elevated trading activity could hold. For investors, the takeaway is stark: Coinbase’s near-term upside now hinges less on crypto’s promise than on the continuation of geopolitical crisis.