Gold Surges as Ceasefire Weakens Dollar and Rekindles Rate-Cut Bets

Gold climbed to near a three-week high as a U.S.-Iran ceasefire drove down oil prices and weakened the dollar, reshaping inflation expectations and reviving bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts. Spot gold rose 1.6% to $4,779.19 per ounce on March 15, 2026, with June futures settling at $4,805.90 — a 2.6% gain — as markets priced in diminished inflation risks from easing energy costs. The move followed a historic two-week truce between the U.S. and Iran, brokered by Pakistan, which halted a six-week conflict that had disrupted Middle East energy supplies and pushed inflation fears higher. Oil prices fell below $100 per barrel, directly reducing near-term inflation pressure. That shift weakened the U.S. dollar, which in turn made dollar-denominated gold more attractive to international buyers and investors eyeing lower real yields. The Federal Reserve had held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% in its March meeting, but the ceasefire’s economic ripple — cooling energy-driven inflation — made future cuts more plausible. Analysts noted the gains reflected both safe-haven demand and monetary policy expectations, though warned the truce remained fragile. Other precious metals mirrored gold’s strength: silver surged 4.9% to $76.44, platinum rose 4.9% to $2,054.10, and palladium jumped 9.1% to $1,603.13 — a broad signal that markets were repricing risk and return in a suddenly calmer geopolitical landscape.