Gold stalls near $4,800 as diplomatic hopes clash with naval blockade

Spot gold trades at $4,786 per ounce, pinned between fading geopolitical fears and a resilient dollar, leaving bulls unable to clear critical resistance near $4,827. The U.S. Navy’s ongoing blockade of Iranian ports continues to reinforce dollar dominance, pressuring non-yielding gold, even as Washington and Tehran agree in principle to new talks. Diplomatic progress, including a recent Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, has cooled risk appetite, weakening gold’s safe-haven bid. At the same time, softer U.S. PPI data has dampened inflation fears, reducing expectations for aggressive Fed tightening. Traders now see only a 30% chance of rate cuts by year-end, limiting dollar weakness. Technical signals add to the caution: gold failed to break above the 200-period SMA on the four-hour chart, while the MACD remains in negative territory. Without a sustained move past $4,827, the path toward $5,130 remains closed, and a drop below $4,760 could expose $4,604 next.