Gold Resilience Breaks Inverse Correlation With $100 Oil

Spot gold prices recovered to $4700 after an initial drop to $4642 per ounce. The decline occurred as Brent crude jumped 8% to $102.60 per barrel following US President Donald Trump's threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. The surge in oil prices drove inflation expectations higher, lifting market forecasts for the Federal Reserve's year-end key interest rate by 3 basis points to 3.6%. This shift typically pressures gold, which has maintained a seven-week inverse correlation with oil during the current Middle East conflict. Before the conflict, the 20-day rolling correlation between the two assets was positive at 0.6. By the end of March, it shifted to negative 0.5. The current resilience in gold prices has weakened that relationship to 0.2.