Gold Holds Steady as Rate Hikes Loom and Geopolitics Simmer

Gold trades at $4,715.45 per ounce, unchanged Thursday, as investors weigh the risk of renewed Middle East conflict against growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. Since hostilities erupted on February 28, spot gold has fallen over 10%, erasing gains driven by early escalation fears. Recent Israeli military strikes in Lebanon — which resulted in hundreds of fatalities — have heightened regional tensions, while Iran has threatened retaliation and the U.S. maintains a military presence under a fragile ceasefire. Despite the volatility, gold’s price response has been muted. Federal Reserve minutes from the March 17–18 meeting reveal increasing consensus among officials to consider rate hikes, a move that pressures non-yielding assets like gold. With inflation still above the Fed’s 2% target, upcoming PCE data Thursday and CPI figures Friday will shape expectations for monetary policy. Higher rates make alternative assets more attractive, dampening gold demand. Yet Standard Chartered projects a recovery in coming months, citing persistent geopolitical instability as a structural support for prices.