Gas Prices at $4.10 a Gallon: The Iran War’s Energy Shock Is Already Pressing on Consumers

Gas station spending rose by 16.5% in March as the national average gasoline price climbed to $4.10 per gallon, marking one of the most direct financial impacts of the Iran war on American consumers. The surge in energy costs has already begun to shift economic behavior, with higher borrowing costs and uncertainty complicating the broader outlook for growth. The Federal Reserve, which had previously signaled potential rate cuts, now faces a delay in easing policy, pushing cuts to the second half of 2026 or later. Consumer confidence has plummeted to its lowest level since the 1950s, though real spending has not yet collapsed. Goldman Sachs has revised its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 2% (quarter-on-quarter annualized), a 0.5 percentage point reduction from earlier estimates. The firm also now projects the unemployment rate to reach 4.6% by year-end, reflecting the war’s growing economic drag. Meanwhile, Asia, the largest consumer of Middle Eastern energy, is expected to face the most severe spillover effects from the conflict.