T he National Association of Realtors has reduced its projected growth for spring existing-home sales from 14% to 4%.
Related Brief 1d ago
mortgage rates Oil Trade Disruptions Push 30-Year Mortgage Rates Higher
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.24% as of April 13, 2026. This follows a climb of over 40 basis points by the end of March. The increase was driven by a conflict with Iran that began in February, which halted oil trade and sent 10-year Treasury bond yields climbing.
This decline follows a surge in mortgage interest rates, which climbed from below 6% to approximately 6.5% after the start of the Iran War.
Related Brief 1d ago
mortgage rates A bond-market rally tied to trade-war expectations cuts mortgage rates, changing the math for buyers and refinancers
Lower mortgage rates are changing the refinancing calculus for homeowners carrying loans above 7%, as the average 30-year fixed rate fell to 6.30% on April 13, 2026. The average 15-year fixed rate declined to 5.92%, while 30-year refinance loans averaged 6.62% and 15-year refinances hit 5.91%. For households weighing monthly savings against closing costs, even this modest drop can shift the breakeven point enough to make refinancing worth reconsidering. The decline follows a bond-market rally sparked by shifting expectations around trade-war policies, which lowered yields and reduced lenders’ funding costs. Because mortgage rates track 10-year Treasury yields and mortgage-backed securities, that bond move translated directly into lower borrowing costs. While rates remain far above pandemic-era lows, the recent easing offers a narrow window of relief for buyers on the sidelines and refinancers sitting on high-rate loans. But the improvement hinges on trade negotiations staying stable. If expectations reverse, the bond rally could stall—and mortgage rates with it. Borrowers who act now may lock in savings before the window closes. The terminal consequence is that refinancers with rates above 7% may now find the spread wide enough to justify a new loan, depending on their loan balance, term, and closing costs.
Zillow data shows the current national average for a 30-year fixed mortgage is 6.16%, while refinance rates for the same term sit at 6.27%. A 30-year mortgage of $400,000 at 6.16% results in a monthly payment of approximately $2,440 and total interest of $478,221 over the life of the loan.
Related Brief 8h ago
mortgage rates Mortgage rates will remain elevated through 2026 due to geopolitical tensions
Mortgage rates will remain elevated through 2026. This is the consequence of geopolitical tensions that have increased oil prices, pushing inflation higher than previously expected. The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts inflation will reach closer to 4% by the end of 2026, up from an original forecast of 3.2%. Because of these inflation risks, the Mortgage Bankers Association has removed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. The federal funds rate is expected to remain in the range of 3.5% to 3.75% with little movement anticipated into 2027.
Bankrate Senior Economic Analyst Mark Hamrick notes that elevated national prices and the recent rate surge have dampened the spring selling season. In Tulsa, Oklahoma, prices are moving lower year-over-year, creating a buyer's market.
Related Brief 12h ago
mortgage rates A ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran lowers 30-year mortgage rates to 6.37%
Prospective homebuyers face a reduction in monthly borrowing costs after the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate dropped to 6.37% from 6.46% last week. The decline follows five straight increases that added hundreds of dollars a month in costs for home shoppers. The rate drop was driven by a decrease in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which banks use as a guide to pricing home loans. The yield dropped to 4.28% in midday trading Thursday, down from 4.3% a week ago. This shift in bond yields followed a two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran. Mortgage applications fell 0.8% last week from the previous week.
The National Association of Realtors revised its spring existing-home sales growth projection from 14% to 4%.
Related Brief 1d ago
housing market Higher mortgage rates push first-time buyers to record age of 40
The median age of first-time home buyers has reached 40, a record high, as rising mortgage rates and tight supply push ownership further out of reach. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage climbed to 6.18% in March, up from 6.05% the month before, adding hundreds of dollars in monthly payments for would-be buyers. That increase helped drive existing home sales down 3.6% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales are now 1% below last year’s pace. The group has slashed its 2026 forecast for existing home sales to a 4% increase, down sharply from the 14% gain it projected late last year. Tight inventory and rising borrowing costs are delaying homeownership for a generation of buyers.
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