Energy price surges erase the Federal Reserve's summer rate cut path
The Federal Reserve is now 80% likely to hold interest rates in the 3.5%–3.75% range, ending market expectations for rate cuts previously anticipated for the summer of 2026. This shift follows April 2026 inflation data showing energy prices surged 12.5% year-over-year. The 12.5% energy rise contributed roughly 0.8 percentage points to the monthly increase, pushing headline Consumer Price Index numbers toward 3.3%.
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