Energy-Driven Inflation Spikes Raise the Hurdle Rate for Bitcoin
EC
Elara Cromwell
Bitcoin ETF · Apr 10, 2026
Source: The Digital Ledger Data Terminal
A Bitcoin rally dependent on easier money becomes harder to sustain when inflation surges through energy and transport costs. March headline CPI rose 3.3% year over year, up from 2.4% in February, with a monthly increase of 0.9%. This represents the largest single-month jump since March 2021.
The spike followed an energy shock caused by disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, which pushed US gasoline prices above $4 a gallon in early April. This acceleration increases the risk that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive policy stance to prevent energy shocks from spilling into broader prices. A restrictive stance keeps real yields firm and the hurdle rate for risk assets high.
In the current cycle, Bitcoin has behaved as a rates-sensitive risk asset. A high hurdle rate makes any recovery rally harder to sustain.
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