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Home/Real Estate/PENDING HOME SALES INDEX · HOUSING INVENTORY SHORTAGE

California Home Sellers Face Decade-High Rate of Price Cuts as Inventory Stagnates

OS

Orion Stafford

pending home sales index · Apr 14, 2026

California Home Sellers Face Decade-High Rate of Price Cuts as Inventory Stagnates

Source: DojiDoji Data Terminal

Typical monthly mortgage payments in California have risen to approximately $2,750 as rates climb into the mid-6 percent range. This borrowing cost has contributed to a 2.4 percent year-over-year decline in pending sales, the steepest drop in three months.

Related Brief2h ago
real estate

Mortgage Rate Hikes Push Existing Home Sales to a Nine-Month Low

First-time purchasers face persistent affordability challenges. Mortgage rates rose in recent weeks amid inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions that pushed energy prices higher. This shift kept potential buyers on the sidelines. The National Association of Realtors reported existing-home sales fell 3.6% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million units. This is the slowest pace in nine months. Sales are 1% lower than a year ago. The median existing-home price reached a record high for March. This price support is driven by limited supply, as housing inventory remains below historical norms despite a 3.0% increase from February to 1.36 million units. The median existing-home price rose 1.4% year-over-year to $408,800.

Properties are staying on the market longer, with the typical home now taking 51 days to go under contract—the slowest pace for this time of year since before the pandemic. Consequently, 34 percent of California listings have seen price reductions, the highest share for this time of year in more than a decade.

Related Brief22h ago
housing market

Higher mortgage rates push first-time buyers to record age of 40

The median age of first-time home buyers has reached 40, a record high, as rising mortgage rates and tight supply push ownership further out of reach. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage climbed to 6.18% in March, up from 6.05% the month before, adding hundreds of dollars in monthly payments for would-be buyers. That increase helped drive existing home sales down 3.6% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales are now 1% below last year’s pace. The group has slashed its 2026 forecast for existing home sales to a 4% increase, down sharply from the 14% gain it projected late last year. Tight inventory and rising borrowing costs are delaying homeownership for a generation of buyers.

In Riverside, 32.7 percent of sellers have cut prices, with an average reduction of $16,133 across all sellers. In San Jose, while only 11.1 percent of sellers cut prices, those who did reduced their asking price by an average of $152,108.

Related Brief1d ago
real estate

Florida's Housing Shortagey describes a 121,000-Unit Gap in Owner-Occupied and Rental Properties

Housing inventory in high-demand markets is facing price pressure. This is the result of a combination of 66,000 missing owner-occupied homes and 55,000 rental units across Florida. A statewide housing supply model developed by Florida State University’s DeVoe L. Moore Institute, in partnership with the Reason Foundation and the Florida Policy Project, analyzed housing surpluses and shortages across all 67 counties. The most severe shortages are concentrated in Miami-Dade, Fort Lauderdale, and Tampa. Miami-Dade County has the highest estimated shortage in Florida at just over 12,700 units. Broward County follows with 10,233 units, and Hillsborough County has 8,360 units. Duval County is short 6,941 units. Researchers point to limiting factors in new construction that have restricted housing inventory.

This shift occurs as existing-home sales prices in the West region fell 1.3 percent in March. Nationally, the National Association of Realtors has revised its 2026 existing-home sales forecast from a 14 percent increase down to 4 percent.

Related Brief2d ago
housing market

Housing inventory growth is nearing zero — and could turn negative as mortgage rates hover below 6.5%

National housing inventory rose by just 1,517 units in the week of April 3–10, 2026, compared to a 11,263-unit rise the same week in 2025. That gap isn’t noise — it’s momentum shifting toward a likely negative year-over-year inventory reading by mid-2026. The brake on supply isn’t sudden. It’s been tightening since mortgage rates settled below 6.5%, reducing the urgency for homeowners to trade up or cash out. Rates ended the week at 6.39%, down from 6.43%, and have not crossed 7% in months — a level that historically pushes more sellers into the market. But in 2026, even with brief spikes toward 6.64% due to the Iran conflict, the rate curve has been the lowest since 2022. That stability keeps sellers sitting. New listings last week totaled 70,244, down from 76,271 the same week last year. That shortfall follows a trend: despite seasonal expectations of 80,000–100,000 new listings during peak months, the market has not seen a single week in that range. Inventory growth has decelerated from 33% year-over-year in mid-2025 to just 3.21% in early April 2026. The slowdown isn’t isolated. Pending sales fell to 68,864 last week from 71,632 a year earlier. Purchase applications were down 7% year over year, despite a 1% weekly gain. The 10-year yield, which ended the week at 4.32%, has held below levels that would push mortgage spreads wider. And while spreads closed at 2.05% — down from 2.11% — they remain better than 2023–2025 peaks. Had 2023’s worst spreads applied today, mortgage rates would be 7.45%, not 6.39%. But the current environment isn’t punishing borrowing — it’s freezing movement. If trends hold, national housing inventory could post negative year-over-year growth by mid-2026.

pending home sales indexhousing inventory shortage

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