Bitcoin surged on ceasefire-driven oil relief, but traders aren't betting on a breakout

Bitcoin rose 5% to a peak of $72,734 as risk assets rebounded on improved macro conditions. $3 billion in taker buy volume was recorded on Binance's derivatives markets within two hours of the ceasefire news. The United States and Iran agreed to a Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz reduced the risk of prolonged disruption to 20% of global oil exports. Brent crude fell 13.8% to $94.25, and US crude dropped 15.4% to $95.52 following the ceasefire announcement. Lower oil prices eased inflation expectations and reduced the risk of a stagflation shock that had pressured central banks. Global equity markets rallied, with Germany’s DAX rising 4.7%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 gaining 5.4%, and South Korea’s Kospi jumping 6.9%. Bitcoin’s move above $70,000 was driven by short-term repositioning rather than sustained conviction. Options data showed declining implied volatility and reduced crash fear, not rising expectations for sustained upside. Institutional spot ETF flows remained volatile, with $471.4 million in inflows on April 6 followed by outflows on April 7. Bitcoin faces 8.4 million BTC still underwater and heavy supply resistance between $80,000 and $126,000. Sustained trading above $70,000 requires normalization of tanker traffic, oil prices below $109, and consistent spot demand. If the truce fails and oil rebounds, Bitcoin could fall back to the $62,000–$69,000 range.