Anthropic Is Capturing 70% of New Corporate AI Deals—And Palantir’s Valuation Is Built for a Winner That Isn’t Winning

Anthropic now wins about 70% of first-time, head-to-head enterprise purchasing decisions against OpenAI. That share of new corporate AI spending is the kind of dominance that reshapes markets—and it’s happening while Palantir, a company valued as a leading AI platform, watches from the sidelines.

Ramp's March AI Index shows nearly one in four of its customers now pays for Anthropic, up from roughly one in 25 a year ago. Adoption grew 4.9 percentage points month-over-month, the fastest pace on record. Business AI adoption overall hit 47.6%, but the distribution of that growth is sharply skewed: Anthropic is capturing the bulk of new spending.

The company went from $9 billion to $30 billion in annual recurring revenue in months. Palantir took 20 years to reach $5 billion in ARR. The contrast isn’t just about speed. It’s about control, cost, and access.

Michael Burry has long argued Palantir is not the AI innovator it claims to be. He points to its reliance on external models—like Anthropic’s Claude—as proof the company lacks real AI software of its own. Its government-heavy revenue stream, he adds, is low-margin and slow-growing. Its accounts receivable are expanding faster than revenue. Stock-based compensation remains high.

Now, the data Burry cites suggests enterprises aren’t just choosing Anthropic over OpenAI. They’re bypassing integrators altogether. The foundation model providers are going direct.

Palantir’s platform assumes companies need heavy customization, data integration, and consulting to deploy AI. But if businesses are adopting Anthropic’s tools natively—without middleware—the value shifts to the model layer.

Burry holds long-dated put options on 5 million Palantir shares, betting the stock will fall. His case rests on a simple mechanism: if the majority of new AI spending flows to providers that compete with Palantir’s core offering, and Palantir lacks differentiated technology to defend its position, then its valuation multiple will compress.

That multiple today reflects a high-growth AI story. The spending data suggests the real growth is happening elsewhere.

Investors may soon reclassify Palantir not as a pure-play AI company, but as a systems integrator with legacy government contracts.