Analyst Upgrades Reveal BlackRock’s Private Markets Momentum—and Its Valuation Gap

BlackRock’s $130 billion in net inflows during the first quarter drove 8% organic base fee growth—the strongest start to a year in the firm’s history—and set off a wave of analyst reevaluations. The surge lifted total assets under management to $13.89 trillion, a 20% jump from a year earlier, while revenue reached $6.7 billion, up 27% year-over-year and above expectations. Adjusted diluted EPS came in at $12.53, beating consensus by more than a dollar. The company responded with a 10% dividend increase, raising the quarterly payout to $5.73 per share.

Goldman Sachs analyst Alexander Blostein raised his price target to $1,313 from $1,181, citing confidence in sustained mid-teens EPS growth and future earnings revisions that could push the stock toward historical valuation levels. Barclays followed with a more modest increase to $1,310, emphasizing continued institutional demand for private credit. Morgan Stanley went further, setting a target of $1,393 and projecting a 15% compound annual EPS growth rate from 2025 to 2028.

With BlackRock stock trading near $1,050 as of April 15, the new targets imply 25% to 33% upside. The valuation case gains strength from a forward P/E of 19x—below historical norms despite accelerating growth. Private markets performance fees exploded to $272 million, a 353% increase year-over-year, and iShares posted a record $132 billion in net inflows. Yet not all flows were positive: institutional index products bled $34.7 billion. The effective tax rate also climbed to 23.2% from 16% a year ago, and integration risks from recent acquisitions remain. The market is pricing optimism. The fundamentals must keep delivering it.